A majority of New Zealanders do not want the movement of all people restricted until 90% of Māori aged 12+ have been
vaccinated against COVID-19.
A nationwide Horizon Research survey of 1,023 adults between November 30 and December 6, 2021, found 59% of adults don’t agree with restricting movement for this reason, 32% agree and 9% are unsure.
Among Māori, the figures are similar: 33% agree with restricting movement, 54% disagree while 13% don’t know.
The survey was conducted after health experts expressed concern that Māori are more vulnerable to infection, serious
illness and death if infected with COVID-19.
They said Māori had higher rates of most diseases and many Māori live in communities where vaccination rates are
currently lower than the national average, and access to health services is limited. In the 1918 flu pandemic one in
every 20 Māori died. Māori health experts say they are worried this could happen again.
However, while there have been strong calls to protect Māori populations in some regions, like Northland and the Bay of
Plenty, where there are many unvaccinated Māori, a majority of people living there disagree with the idea of restricting
their movement to do that.
In Northland, 73% disagree, 21% agree on the need for restrictions.
In the Bay of Plenty 70% disagree and 26% agree.
Highest agreement with restricting movement is in Otago (55%), the West Coast of the South Island (52%) and Wellington
(42%).
By ethnicity, highest agreement is among Pasifika 53%, Indians 51% and Asians 47%. But among Pākehā Europeans only 30%
agree and other among Europeans (born outside New Zealand) 34% agree.
The survey was conducted by Horizon in the public interest in association with Auckland University’s School of
Population Health.
Professor Chris Bullen, a Professor of Public Health at the University of Auckland’s School of Population Health, says
the research reflects a desire by many people to get back to life as it used to be before COVID. However, he says this
attitude could pose risks for as-yet-unvaccinated Māori and ultimately prove to be risky for everyone.
In another survey question, only 19% supported delaying more movement to help protect the unvaccinated generally, not
just unvaccinated Māori. Some 13% thought more movement of people would encourage people to get vaccinated and 17%
agreed with the statement: Just allow more movement of people, using vaccine passport and other measures, to help
protect unvaccinated people.
Professor Bullen said the concern that greater movement might lead to a rise in COVID-19 infections of unvaccinated and
vulnerable groups within the population is a valid one.
“However, this survey finds people want to be able to move, think the traffic light framework protections will work, and
freer movement will prompt the unvaccinated to get vaccine protection.
“Official modelling warns of a worse-case scenario of up to 16,000 COVID-19 infections a week nationwide, even if 90% of
the population aged 12 or older is fully vaccinated.
“We haven’t reached 90% yet – and we’re going to need to take care to protect each other even when we do, and protect
ourselves and others as Auckland’s borders come down on December 15.
“When that happens, especially during Christmas and New Year, many people will travel from and to all parts of the
country.”
Results of the online Horizon survey are weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, region, employment status and education
level. At a 95% confidence level the maximum overall margin of error is +/- 3%
www.horizonpoll.co.nzMETHODOLOGY AND CHARTS
These results are from a HorizonPoll study conducted between 30 November and 6 December 2021. The total sample size was
1,023 adults, 18 years of age and over.
The maximum margin of error is ±3.1% (at the 95% confidence level) though this increases for any subgroup, as well as
any comparison between subgroups.
The data was weighted on age, gender, level of education, employment status, region and ethnicity to be representative
of the adult New Zealand population at the 2018 census.