The government's vaccine certificate scheme will be a failure before it's even launched.

Customers without a certificate, turned away from larger businesses, still need to make purchases.

Those customers will gravitate to smaller businesses.

Smaller businesses, whether in the hospitality or retail sector, are already under threat of collapse after weeks of lockdowns, so will not turn away customers.

They can not afford the costs of having staff police the scheme, nor will they want the aggravation involved in policing it.

Neither will they want to face an avalanche of discrimination complaints that would see them having to defend themselves in court.

They will quietly ignore vaccine certificates and get on with doing business.

This will happen rapidly as those small business owners see the evidence flooding in from overseas that vaccination is not as effective with the Delta variant.

That evidence is already appearing in New Zealand with a number of fully vaccinated people catching the virus.

Fifty cases in the current outbreak were fully vaccinated including a policeman who was stood down on Friday.

TV1 news reported yesterday that Victoria, where people have undergone nearly the longest lockdown of anywhere in the world, had nearly 2000 cases on Saturday, with 57 percent of those people who were fully vaccinated.

Larger businesses will not want to lose out either, or face court action, so they too will soon start to ignore the certificates.

England has just scrapped its plans to introduce certificates, where business described them as problematic, divisive, and unworkable.

England’s Health Secretary, Sajid Javid told the BBC "We just shouldn't be doing things for the sake of it or because others are doing, and we should look at every possible intervention properly."

He said he had "never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers" to "do what is just an everyday activity".

The government will be wasting millions on vaccine certificates when that money should be going to boost the capacity of our seriously understaffed emergency departments.

They should start by expediting a plan to get the 80 highly qualified immigrant doctors, currently unable to get jobs, working in our health system.

And instead of putting all it’s eggs in the one vaccine basket and repeating other countries mistakes it should jump ahead to investigate other treatment options which would reduce the load on hospital emergency departments.

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