A week after sparking the first serious debate in New Zealand about the best way of beating Covid-19, the public health professionals of the Plan B group say international data shows the virus is abating and New Zealand can safely shift even to Level 2.

In an article published today on the Plan B website, epidemiologist Simon Thornley says it is now clear that the virus threat is abating, so New Zealand does not need to stay under restrictions for the year required to eliminate the virus and wait for a vaccine.

“The data gives hope that it is safe to exit from lockdown, and even shift to Level 2.”

“Iceland found out that about half of test-positive cases had no symptoms. Almost 1% of the community tested positive. If the same were true in New Zealand, 50,000 people now have the virus.

“That means immunity will be spreading. This will be one factor behind New Zealand’s 22% fall in the rate of active infections.”

Thornley said it was now clear that the disease had raised the mortality rate in Europe to a typical peak year. It was, however, no higher than observed during the 2016/17 influenza season.

He said the alternative to swift exit based on growing immunity, was elimination and a vaccine – which would require significant restrictions at least until Christmas.

“Elimination is an impressive goal. We will be the first country in the world to achieve it. But I’m not sure people appreciate what that requires. It is only viable if every person who gets Covid-19 is identified, tested, isolated and quarantined. That’s hard, because at least half of people with Covid-19 don’t know they’ve got it.”

Thornley clarified that the group’s major interest is protecting the small number of people who are severely threatened by the virus.

“Every resource should be focused on keeping the virus away from the elderly, infirm and compromised. It’s a waste to spread those resources over every New Zealander.”

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