30 August 2019

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has today released the Medium to Long-Term Employment Outlook: Looking ahead to 2028.

The report shows that employment is projected to grow by an average of 1.4 per cent each year. This will add an estimated 39,400 workers on average per annum to the workforce over the 10 years to 2028.

Employment growth is projected to be steady in the medium term and moderate over the longer term, as a result of continuing population growth and increasing gains from the expanding Business services sector and in goods and services exports.

MBIE’s Workforce & Workplace – Evidence and Insights Manager, Dr Rose Ryan, says highly-skilled workers (managers and professionals) will be in demand over the medium to long term.

“The projection modelling shows that highly-skilled jobs will grow by 1.9 per cent, or 22,800 annually until 2028. Growth will be strongest for business and systems analysts, ICT managers, and advertising, public relations, and sales managers,” says Dr Ryan.

“Industries expected to see strong growth include Retail trade, Accommodation & Food services, Business services and Construction. Together, these are projected to add around 17,500 more workers per year to employment growth in the 10 years to 2028.”

MBIE has assessed two possible scenarios that may impact the projections. The first is the potential disruption to New Zealand exports over the next five years, arising from escalating trade tensions between our key trading partners. The second considers the potential impact of automation on employment across industries over the next 10 years.

Read the projections on the MBIE website.

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