New Zealanders say North Korea will use a nuclear weapon

Friday, 13 October 2017, 9:53 am
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

Thursday, 12 October 2017

New Zealanders say North Korea will use a nuclear weapon

A special Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken in late September, after the New Zealand Election, shows a majority (58%) of New Zealanders saying it is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 42% that say it is ‘Fairly unlikely’ (31%) or ‘Very unlikely’ (11%).

These figures are a reverse of the Australian result surveyed in mid-September which showed 51% of Australians believe it is ‘Fairly/Very unlikely’ North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 49% of Australians that say it is ‘Fairly/Very likely’.

The majority of New Zealanders (78%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution,a similar result to Australia, and only 22% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working and a military one is needed.

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This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Questions: “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”

Analysis by Voting Preference: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysing the results by voting preference shows a majority of supporters of the major parties National, Labour and New Zealand First think it likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon whereas a slight majority of Greens supporters think it is unlikely.

	Total NZ	Electors	Labour	National	NZ First	Greens	Other	Can’t say	Non Electors	Total Australia
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Very likely	19	19	28	15	16	15	12	30	15	16
Fairly likely	39	38	31	45	44	31	35	46	30	33
Total likely	58	57	59	60	60	46	47	76	45	49
Fairly unlikely	31	33	32	31	22	41	36	21	36	33
Very unlikely	11	10	9	9	18	13	17	3	19	18
Total unlikely	42	43	41	40	40	54	53	24	55	51
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

As expected large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution.

	Total NZ	Electors	Labour	National	NZ First	Greens	Other	Can’t say	Non electors	Total Australia
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Peaceful	78	78	80	75	74	89	63	85	79	81
Military	22	22	20	25	26	11	37	15	21	19
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Analysis by Gender & Age: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysis by gender shows women and men differ on the tense situation with women much more concerned than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea might use nuclear weapons than not whilst it is those aged 35-64 who are most certain North Korea will use a nuclear weapon with older and younger New Zealanders more evenly split on the question.

Total

NZ Gender Age Total

Australia
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
% % % % % % % % %
Very likely 19 12 25 14 14 23 24 16 16
Fairly likely 39 30 43 38 42 40 38 37 33
Total likely 58 42 68 52 56 63 62 53 49
Fairly unlikely 31 38 29 38 33 28 28 33 33
Very unlikely 11 20 3 10 11 9 10 14 18
Total unlikely 42 58 32 48 44 37 38 47 51
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

Large majorities of both genders and all ages are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution although it is the youngest New Zealanders, those aged 18-24, who are most pre-disposed to a potential military solution (32%).
Total

NZ Gender Age Total

Australia
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

ends

Roy Morgan Research

New Zealand's leading social and market research company

A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.

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Website - www.roymorgan.com

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