Immigration concerns overblown
Dr Arama Rata is a researcher at the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, and the Māori spokesperson
for MARRC (Migrant and Refugee Rights Campaign).
Immigration has skyrocketed in recent years. In a nation faced with inadequate infrastructure, a housing crisis and an
impending election, opposition parties have seized the opportunity to make immigration a major election issue. But are
our immigration concerns justified, or just another example of growing global xenophobia? I sought the advice of an
immigration expert and here’s what I found out.
Far from our blustery capital, tucked away in a quiet corner of the pristine University of Waikato campus sits a man
with a unique set of skills. In a nation gripped by boarder paranoia, one might expect journalists and policy makers
alike to be knocking down the door of international immigration expert Professor Jacques Poot at the National Institute
of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA). Yet when I approach his open office door, late one afternoon, I find him
alone, lost in his work.
I’m a newly appointed researcher at the institute myself and I’ve arrived, unannounced, to glean insight into
immigration and its economic impacts for a project I’m working on. I’ve been making a living at academic institutions
for over a decade and have met my fair share of overworked intellectuals, so I’m pleasantly surprised by the enthusiasm
with which I’m greeted. And I soon discover the source of this hospitality – Professor Poot’s lifelong love of
population research.
“Well, firstly you have to realize that the rates of net migration we’re experiencing are completely unprecedented” he
explains. “I was involved in the statistical modelling of immigration back in the 80s, and the rates we see today far
exceed even the most extreme projections any population economist would have made at that time”.
Professor Poot begins to describe the economic factors that came together in perfect unison to create this unforeseen
spike in net migration (that’s high immigration, low emigration to us lay folk), and as he does so I imagine the whānau
trampoline, alive with mokopuna on Christmas day. There’s the global financial crisis from which New Zealand escaped
relatively unscathed (Alex, my inventive 9 year old nephew); China’s shrinking demand for natural resources deflating
the Australian economy (Lizzie, my 7 year old courageous niece), a boom in the New Zealand construction industry on the
back of the Christchurch rebuild and low interest rates (Daniel, my sociable 6 year old nephew); and a burgeoning,
upwardly mobile Chinese middle class wanting to travel the world and educate their kids abroad (Katarina, my
strong-willed 2 year old niece). When all these largely independent factors converge for a moment they send New
Zealand’s economy (Hinekaukia, my unsuspecting 1 year old daughter) shooting skyward, pulling migrants in tow.
I press Professor Poot on the government policies that have surely contributed to the immigration boom. He shrugs this
off. “There’s a lot of variability in immigration year on year. Only five years ago New Zealand had negative net
migration because of the movements of New Zealanders, which the government can’t control. But if you follow immigration
numbers over a longer period you see an underlying trend for modest growth only.” The stats back up Poot’s point. As
this nice graph shows, the migration of New Zealanders (who aren’t controlled by migration policies) cuts a similar
shape to the migration of foreigners.
Net migration was driven up largely by economic factors outside of the government’s control and the same factors will no
doubt drive it down again in the near future. In light of this insight, the immigration cuts proposed by opposition
parties in the lead up to the 2017 election seem less like an attempt to pick the lowest hanging political fruit, and
more like waiting for the neighbour’s feijoas to fall on the right side of the fence, then selling them at a roadside
stall for five bucks a bag.
My conversation with the Professor gets me thinking that a kneejerk crackdown on immigration might not just be
unhelpful. It may in fact be harmful. I like to think of this as the ‘Turbo Outrun effect’, after the 1980s car racing
game. I still recall following my older brother (like a stray dog) to the spacie parlour to try this game for the first
time. Pumped with adrenalin, fists tight around the steering wheel, I tried desperately to stick to the curves of the
track. But the slightest miscalculation triggered a series of ever worsening over-corrections, until my car careered out
of control into a spectacular crash.
The same could easily occur with immigration. Remember, only a few years ago net migration was so low we were desperate
to attract migrants to our shores. My Turbo Outrun career was salvaged; I was lucky that my big bro was one of the few
teenagers in town whose street cred’ could withstand associating with his little sister at the spacie parlour, so he was
there to lay a hand on my shoulder and offer some sage advice: Stay calm, try to anticipate the corners, and make subtle
adjustments to get back in control. I can’t help but wonder how secure our immigration future might be in the hands of
an informed, composed driver like Jacques Poot. This could have been the case. While I was racing my Ferrari F40,
Professor Poot was involved in a body called the New Zealand Planning Council, which among other things advised the
government on population trends, until it lost political favour at the end of the 80s.
And so we have politicians steering our immigration future. Instead of calculated, future focused adjustments, they seem
intent on whipping the nation into an uninformed, xenophobic frenzy. Labour announced they would reduce net migration by
tens of thousands, but failed to reveal how they would achieve this. Perhaps their hesitancy results from their
knowledge of what Professor Poot knows (and you and I now know): that immigration numbers are at an all-time high due
largely to external economic factors, and that they will almost certainly fall in the near future as they regress to the
more modest average rate (particularly if jobs in Australia start to look attractive again). This fall is likely to
occur without Labour, or New Zealand First, or any other party having to do a thing. But, in an election year, ‘Stay the
course! Change the Government!’ is a confused and uninspiring campaign slogan if ever I’ve heard one.
Our immigration policies are not perfect. Professor Poot informs me that the greatest rise in immigration has been among
temporary workers; Our policy makers did not expect the great number of people wanting to come to New Zealand on a
temporary basis, and many migrants face uncertainty in a system that does not guarantee pathways to permanent residency.
I now leave the good Professor. He’s off to his country of birth, the Netherlands, where immigration is even more
contentious than it is here. It’s been over three months since their general election on March 15, and the Dutch still
don’t have a government because the leading parties can’t agree on immigration. In calculating our own course, we
require informed, balanced discussion on immigration in the context of fast growing global mobility, while avoiding the
deeply divisive, fear based politicking sweeping much of the Western world. We will know we’ve created a successful
immigration system when we are able to provide certainty, dignity and respect to migrants, while balancing the needs of
New Zealand Citizens, not when net migration hits a magic number.
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