Bill English’s Plan B for TPPA a political ‘own goal’ in election year
‘The idea from Prime Minister Bill English that New Zealand and other countries might proceed with Trans-Pacific
Partnership Agreement without the US is quite bizarre - especially in an election year’, says Professor Jane Kelsey from
the University of Auckland.
‘Donald Trump would be delighted! US corporations would get the benefit of all the controversial rules on medicine
patents, copyright, investment, state-owned enterprises that the US insisted on without the US have to give a single
thing in return. Worse, countries that resisted these unprecedented demands for several years would become their new
champions.’
‘Bill English suggested this morning that the TPPA was “probably” still a good deal without the US. Seriously? The
economic modelling the government relied on to sell the TPPA last year had zero credibility and failed to account for
the costs. Take the US out of that equation and any attempt to pitch the agreement as having net benefits to New Zealand
is risible.’
‘Trying to sell the unsaleable during an election year would be a major political miscalculation’, Professor Kelsey
said. ‘Because the text would be substantively different from the one that National rammed through the New Zealand
Parliament last year the new version and a new National Interest Analysis would have to be tabled in the House and
referred to the select committee. Not allowing submissions would inflame anti-TPPA sentiments; allowing them would
provide a platform to expose the government’s stupidity’.
Kelsey noted that ‘Labour would also have to engage the TPPA in election year, which it is desperate not to do. Winston
Peters would be in his element.’
This scenario assumes the other countries can reach the threshold of 85% of GDP to bring the agreement into force. That
calculation would apply to the eleven original signatories who remain after the US withdraws its signature later this
week.
According to Professor Kelsey, a TPPA-11 would require ratification by Japan, Canada and Australia, as well as either
Mexico (86.6% of GDP) or four of the other larger countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Chile and either Peru or New Zealand)
which total just over 85%.
‘Japan has completed its ratification. But the Australian Senate looks like it may reject the deal. The Canadian
government has held a prolonged consultation on TPPA while awaiting developments in the US and will now be preoccupied
with threats to renegotiate NAFTA.’
Professor Kelsey advised the Prime Minister to think again on whether he really wants to score such an obvious ‘own
goal’ in an election year.