29 August 2016
Energy scenarios help in NZ’s energy investment planning
A new report to support long-term investment in New Zealand’s electricity transmission grid was released today.
The Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS), published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
(MBIE), explores future levels of electricity demand and how it could be met out to 2050 under five different scenarios.
“The scenarios are designed to investigate key uncertainties in the electricity sector about generation supply and
demand – which helps when it comes to planning for the future,” says James Hogan, Manager Energy and Building Trends.
“They will be used by Transpower and the Commerce Commission to assess future proposals for planning for capital
investment in the transmission grid.”
Mr Hogan says the modelling is based on a variety of conditions that influence the electricity market, such as the level
of renewable energy, high population growth, strong rates of uptake of electric vehicles, and the potential closure of
Tiwai Point aluminium smelter.
“The scenarios have been developed to explore a plausible range of uncertainty in our future electricity demand and
supply, rather than serving as a prediction of the future state of the electricity market.”
MBIE was given responsibility for producing the EDGS following the 2009 ministerial review of electricity market
performance. The release of the EDGS follows consultation on a draft set of scenarios in 2015 and it will replace the
demand and generation scenarios contained in the Statement of Opportunities produced by the Electricity Commission.
Details of the scenarios, results and key consultations are available here:
http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/energy/energy-data-modelling/modelling/electricity-demand-and-generation-scenarios/edgs-2016
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