Key budgetary points by HiFX
The key budgetary points are:
• Economy in good shape, outlook positive;
annual budget responsible and
supportive
• Fiscal path unchanged,
reaching surplus taking longer, no fears of double dip
deficit
• Will not cut services and
programmes to chase budget
surplus
• Govt surplus of NZD$176m in
year to June 2016 vs prior forecast
NZD$565m
• Annual economic growth to
average 2.8 percent over next four
years
• GDP growth seen at 3.1% in
year to March 2016 vs prior view of
3.4%
• Current account deficit peaking
at 5.6% of GDP in year to March
2016
• Low dairy prices headwind for
economy, global uncertainties
remain
• NZD TWI expected to rise to
77.90 in Q1 2016 vs 75.82
currently
• Dairy prices are forecast
to recover in 2H 2015
• Low inflation
reducing tax take, but keeping down interest rates for
longer
• Expects up to NZD$2.5 bln
available for modest tax cuts in 2017 if conditions
allow
• Annual budget commits NZD$790
mln to support low income
families
• Cuts retirement savings
incentive, imposes new border security levy on
travellers
• No budget surplus until
2018 if export prices have major
fall
• Higher budget surpluses if
domestic demand stronger than
expected
• Recent developments raise
prospect of interest rate reductions in coming
year
• Net migration expected to peak
at 57,000, before returning to 12,000 in 2017
•
The NZD is a little higher in
immediate response.
For more information, please
refer to this
link: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2015.
Current indicative levels are:
NZDUSD 0.7315 / 0.7340
NZDAUD 0.9260 / 0.9285
NZDEUR 0.6575 / 0.6600
NZDGBP 0.5065 / 0.5090
NZDJPY 88.60 / 88.85
ENDS