IPREDICT LTD
NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE
Wednesday 13 May 2015
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.ipredict.co.nz
Average Auckland House to Reach $821,335 by End of June
The average Auckland house price is expected to rise by 0.88% in May to $816,302 and by a further 0.62% in June to $821,335, or $1393 a week over two months, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to be cut on 23 July and then again on 9 June 2016. Inflation forecasts are up fractionally, but it is still expected to remain below 1.5% through to the middle of next year. Dreams the New Zealand dollar might reach parity with the Australian dollar have almost entirely vanished. James Shaw is now expected to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party. Winston Peters is expected to hold the balance of power after the next election and back a National-led government. Chuka Umunna is expected to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party.
New Zealand Politics:
• John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (83% probability, up from 78% last week) but has just a 50% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (up from 31% last week). Mr Key has just a 17% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week).
• Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (37%, steady compared with last week), followed by Judith Collins on 17% (down from 19% last week).
• Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (80% probability, down from 85% last week) and has a 75% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day (down from 85% last week). Mr Little has a 66% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 68% last week).
• Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future
• James Shaw is now favourite to be the next co-leader of the Green Party (62% probability, up from 40% last week), ahead of the previous favourite, Kevin Hague (39% probability, down from 60%)
• Judith Collins has a 55% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (steady compared with last week) and a 71% probability of being appointed before the next election (up from 67%)
• Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (90% probability, down from 96% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)
• Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (93% probability, steady compared with last week) as isMaurice Williamson (53% probability, new stock)
• Next election expected in 2017 (94% probability, up from 92% last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)
• Forecast party vote shares at next election:
o National 44.0% (up from 43.8% last week)
o Labour 33.1% (up from 32.8%)
o Greens 10.8% (steady)
o NZ First 7.5% (steady)
o Others 4.6% (down from 5.1%)
• NZ First has an 86% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (up from 66% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 50% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (down from 54% last week), a 44% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (up from 30%) and a 6% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (down from 16%)
• National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (59% probability, down from 60% last week)
• David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (79% probability, steady compared with last week) and Gerry Brownlee has an 83% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker(steady)
• Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 4% probability they will be, down from 5% last week)
New Zealand Business & Economics:
• Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $809,200 in April to:
o $816,302 in May (up from $814,319 last week)
o $821,335 in June (new stocks)
• Stocks for Auckland house prices in July are now available for trading
• Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (94% probability, steady compared with last week)
• New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 10% probability it will achieve parity, down from 35% last week)
• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:
o 0.74% in the March quarter (up from 0.69% last week)
o 0.70% in the June quarter (steady)
o 0.86% in the September quarter (steady)
o 0.88% in the December quarter (down from 0.89%)
• Annual growth expected to be 3.21% in the 2015 calendar year (up from 3.17% last week)
• Unemployment expected to be:
o 5.41% in the June quarter (up from 5.39% last week)
o 5.30% in the September quarter (steady)
o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)
o 5.43% in the March quarter (new stocks)
• New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:
o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)
o Maori 12.28% (steady)
o Pacific 23.12% (steady)
o Asian 20.43% (steady)
• Current account deficit expected to be:
o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 3.57% in the June quarter (steady)
o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)
o 3.49% in the December quarter (new stocks)
• Annual inflation expected to be:
o 0.41% to end of June 2015 quarter (up from 0.38% last week)
o 0.55% to end of September 2015 quarter (up from 0.54%)
o 0.80% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)
o 1.43% to end of March 2016 quarter (steady)
o 1.47% to end of June 2016 quarter (up from 1.45%)
• Official Cash Rate priced to be:
o 3.428% on 11 June (down from 3.455% last week)
o 3.320% on 23 July (down from 3.410%)
o 3.252% on 10 September (down from 3.362%)
o 3.221% on 29 October (down from 3.343%)
o 3.176% on 10 December (down from 3.300%)
o 3.166% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.290%)
o 3.145% on 10 March 2016 (down from 3.269%)
o 3.135% on 28 April 2016 (down from 3.259%)
o 3.123% on 9 June 2016 (down from 3.247%)
• This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 23 July 2015 to 3.25% (compared with 10 September 2015 last week) and to be cut again on 9 June 2016 (compared with being held at 3.25% until at least that date)
• Stocks on Australian interest rates are now available for trading
• 5% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 3% last week)
• Fiscal balance expected to be:
o -0.31% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.32% last week)
o 0.61% of GDP in 2015/16 (up from 0.53%)
o 1.30% of GDP in 2016/17 (down from 1.51%)
o 1.83% of GDP in 2017/18 (up from 1.80%)
• Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:
o $4.65 in 2014/15 (up from $4.64 last week)
o $5.43 in 2015/16 (up from $5.34)
o $6.11 in 2016/17 (up from $6.10)
• Campbell Live not expected to be cancelled this year (43% probability it will be, up from 25% probability last week)
• Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading
Foreign Affairs/Constitution:
• As forecast by iPredict, David Cameron has remained prime minister of the United Kingdom
• Chuka Umunna is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (56% probability), followed by Andy Burnham (16%), Liz Kendall (14%) and Yvette Cooper (14%)
• Boris Johnson has a 35% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (steady compared with last week)
• Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)
• All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (18% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 22% last week). There is only a 40% probability of a departure by the end of 2017
• Tony Abbott is favourite to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (43% probability, up from 42% last week), followed by Malcolm Turnbull (38% probability) and Julie Bishop (12%)
• Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (86% probability, down from 87% last week)
• Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)
• Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (51% probability, down from 52% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee(steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (21% probability, down from 23%) and Marco Rubio (17% probability, down from 19%)
• There is only a 6% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 8% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 38% probability it will be, steady)
• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 29% (steady compared with last week)
• There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)
Notes:
• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found atwww.ipredict.co.nz.
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