National deal with New Zealand First unlikely

The National party is unlikely to offer a confidence and supply agreement to New Zealand First according to Dr Ryan Malone, Director Training and Research at Civicsquare.

“National’s success is unprecedented under MMP,” says Dr Malone. “New Zealand has never been in a situation where one party can form a government on its own under this electoral system.”

“Nonetheless, the National Party will form a confidence and supply agreement with ACT, United Future, and the Maori Party because it has worked well with these parties in the previous Parliament. MMP encourages more of a consensus style of politics and so National will offer ministerial position to those parties with whom it has worked in the previous Parliament,” says Dr Malone.

“It could also offer New Zealand First a similar deal but is unlikely to do so. Three confidence and supply agreements for National is probably sufficient. Plus, the relationship between National and New Zealand First is fraught in some areas. Having New Zealand First inside the government tent - even for 1 or 2 portfolios - would likely be a bridge too far,” says Dr Malone.

“It is possible that National and New Zealand First might sign a co-operation agreement where they agree to implement a couple of shared policy areas. This would allow National and New Zealand First to build a more permanent relationship with an eye to the 2017 election. But a co-operation agreement may not even be on National’s radar given tonight’s results” says Dr Malone.

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