INDEPENDENT NEWS

Roy Morgan Poll September 17

Published: Wed 17 Sep 2014 03:09 PM
Wednesday, 17 September 2014
John Key set to win narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge to 8%
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 1.5%) set to win a third term in Government on Saturday as support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance slumps to 37.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 2011). Support for both main opposition parties has slipped – Labour (24%, down 2%) and the Greens (13.5%, down 2.5%) less than a week before Saturday’s NZ Election.
New Zealand First (8%, up 2%) appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the Labour/ Greens slump as the election approaches and former Deputy Prime Minister and New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters looks set to have a prominent role in the new Parliament with NZ First projected to win as many as 10 seats. This is the highest support for NZ first for nearly ten years since August 2005.
Support for Key’s Coalition partners has risen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%). The Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1% (unchanged) while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is at 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held last weekend the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that Prime Minister John Key would retain Government with his National (58) - Maori Party (3) - Act NZ (1) - United Future (1) Coalition securing 63 out of 121 seats in Parliament.
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 138pts (up 2pts) with 62% (up 1%) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The NZ Government Confidence Rating (138) remains substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 95pts.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, 58 seats) set to win a third term in Government on Saturday with the continued support of the Maori Party (1.5%, 3 seats), Act NZ (0.5%, 1 seat) and United Future (0.5%, 1 seat) – a majority of 63 seats in a 121 seat Parliament.
“Prime Minister John Key is likely to repeat the feat of his predecessor, Helen Clark, and win a third straight term in office as National has stretched its lead over the main Opposition Labour/ Greens alliance (37.5%, down 4.5%). Both parties lost support in the past fortnight with Labour slumping to 24% (down 2%) and the Greens falling to 13.5% (down 2.5%).
“Today’s results show Key has successfully weathered the scandals of recent weeks – including the resignation of Justice Minister Judith Collins and also the allegations revealed in Nicky Hager’s controversial book – ‘Dirty Politics’.
“However, today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll doesn’t cover the latest allegations made on Sunday by Kim Dotcom about the surveillance society in New Zealand. If these revelations land a blow on John Key National could fall short of the crucial 45% level and potentially leave NZ First as ‘king-makers’ after the election.
“Only a few days before the election there are still 5% of NZ electors undecided about their voting preference, and these electors could well prove crucial. However, NZ First Leader Winston Peters appears likely to once again claim the title as the best campaigner with support for NZ First increasing to 8% (the highest NZ First support since August 2005) enough to win as many as 10 seats in the new Parliament.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
For full release go to http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1409/NZNationalVotingIntention_Sept_17.docx
Roy Morgan Research
New Zealand's leading social and market research company
A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.
Contact Roy Morgan Research
Website:
Sales Contact:
pip.elliott@roymorgan.com

Next in New Zealand politics

Gordon Campbell on a new book on the leaky homes scandal
By: Gordon Campbell
Review finds NZTA road safety regulation failings
By: RNZ
Climate Change Commission Chair-designate announced
By: New Zealand Government
Government putting right Holidays Act underpayment in Health
By: New Zealand Government
Police should not have pursued youths on Auckland motorway
By: Independent Police Conduct Authority
Locked-in care is a ‘hard place to be happy’
By: Office of the Children's Commissioner
Campaigner welcomes removal of racist refugee restrictions
By: Murdoch Stephens
Sroubek report confirms Minister made wrong decision
By: New Zealand National Party
NZTA to refocus on safety following review
By: New Zealand Government
NZTA to adopt "safety first"?
By: Movement
NZ roads will never cope with heavier trucks
By: Citizens Environmental Advocacy Centre
National Party open to higher methane targets
By: BusinessDesk
NZ to go Dutch to battle climate change
By: BusinessDesk
Small end of town needs to chip in on climate change - Carr
By: BusinessDesk
Carr named to chair Climate Change Commission
By: BusinessDesk
View as: DESKTOP | MOBILEWe're in BETA! Send Feedback © Scoop Media