The Letter 15 Sep 2014

Jamie Whyte is going to Parliament

Friday night’s TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll puts Jamie Whyte in Parliament. TVNZ rounded down the poll result (ACT was on 1.2%). With the high wasted Conservative vote, just 1.2% makes Jamie an MP. It is ACT, not NZ First that will hold the balance of power. ACT is rising in all the polls taken last week.

How to maximize your vote

A Party Vote for ACT is worth on average four times a Party Vote for National. The number of Party list MPs a party is awarded is reduced by the number of electorates it wins. National wins many electorates so last election it took 63 thousand votes to elect a National list MP. On average it takes just 16 thousand to elect an ACT MP. 4 times the power. The way to game MMP would be to have a party that just won electorates and another that just won Party Votes. This is what Labour and the Greens now are. This is how the left could steal the election. Centre/right voters need to smarten up. Matthew Hooton in this week’s NBR explains why Epsom voters by double ticking ACT can decide the election. SEE HERE

The real scandal

Convicted German fraudster Dot/Com is revealing his non scandal today. The real scandal is how state TV and state radio devote so much time trying to destroy John Key. Helen Clark was an enthusiastic supporter of the "5 eyes" spy arrangement. John Key has increased checks on our spy agencies. There is no scandal except the way the media have covered this election.

ACT’s five point plan to grow the economy

The non-scandal has meant a party with fresh new ideas like ACT has been squeezed out. Jamie Whyte has been giving very good, thoughtful speeches. The one he is giving today highlights the massive benefit to the economy real welfare reform would make. No other party has put forward practical polices to grow the economy SEE HERE

How to reduce poverty

The Left say that child poverty is the biggest issue facing New Zealand. Their only solution is to throw more money at it. New Zealand spends over $10 billion a year fighting poverty. The Greens say that just another billion will do it. Jamie Whyte points out there is virtually no one in poverty in New Zealand who is in work, finished High School and married the father of their child. Our welfare system encourages behavior that results in poverty. Change the incentives and we will reduce poverty. There is not enough money in the Treasury to pay for addictions so we will never eliminate poverty. Every house The Letter has visited where the children miss breakfast the adults all smoke and drink.

Labour’s melt down

When parties are destructing they issue desperate last minute policy. Labour’s half-baked idea to set up a fund to re-nationalise industry is a good example. Most Labour candidates have never heard of the proposal and have no idea how it would work – mind you neither does Cunliffe. Labour could get its worst result ever. Labour will win Christchurch Central, one or two seats from the Maori Party and Napier – where the Conservatives are splitting the vote. Every seat Labour wins is one less list seat. Labour could lose all its Party List MPs including David Parker.

Our Predictions

It is last election again. National will get 46% and under First Past the Post would have had the biggest majority in history. Labour 24% the Greens 13% and Winston 7%. The Conservatives will not make 5%. Dunne and Flavell will win their seats. It will be close but Hone will win, so Internet/ Mana will get two list MPs. So the result turns on ACT’s vote. We predict we will get 5 MPs. If the right/centre voter, who last election stayed at home because he thought National would win and thinks John Key is National-lite, turns out he will give his second vote to the only party that is for lower taxes, less nanny state and more personal responsibility. ACT could be the very big surprise.

It is a handful of votes

Under MMP just a few votes decide. No one knows what will happen because no one knows how to poll smart phone users. NZ First and the Conservatives who are land line people are over represented in polls. Internet/Mana and ACT are under-represented. Then there is the turnout.

The missing million

Last election was a record low poll. This election will be worse. A majority of 18 year olds are not enrolled. The David Cunliffe and now the Laila Harre strategy to enroll the “missing million” and get them to the poll has failed. Up to one hundred thousand right/centre voters also did not vote. The good news is they are on the roll. Victoria University research says these potential ACT voters make up their mind very late. They are the most likely to go on to a website to check out a party. We know they are going to like what they find on ACT’s website.

Letter readers can decide

American psychologist Jonathan Haidt research demonstrates the only time we change our vote is when someone we respect says to us (for example) “’I have decide to vote for Jamie Whyte. I think having someone who can think has to be an advantage”. You are no different. We do not change because of what we read or see on TV. (That is why “Dirty Politics” has had no effect). You only change when someone you respect puts a different point of view and then you think, “if they are voting ACT maybe I should”. More important than your vote is your opinion. You can change the votes of people who know and respect you. Nothing else can. It is the most powerful insight into voter behaviour The Letter has ever read, Jonathan Haidt “The Righteous Mind; Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion”.

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