iPredict Daily Election Update

iPredict Daily Election Update

www.ipredict.co.nz

www.electionresults.co.nz

National’s forecast party vote has risen to 45.3% over the last day, at the expense of Labour and the Greens, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. A National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party arrangement could govern with 61 seats in a 120-seat parliament. If NZ First holds the balance of power, the probability it will back National is up to 73%. The advantage in highly marginal Palmerston North has edged back to Labour. Economic forecasts are stable except for a return to a forecast fiscal surplus in 2014/15 of 0.2% of GDP.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 78.6% (down from 80.0% yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 80.2% probability (steady compared with yesterday)

• 31% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (up from 29% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 45.3% (up from 44.2% yesterday)

o Labour: 24.5% (down from 25.1%)

o Green: 13.8% (down from 14.1%)

o NZ First: 6.0% (steady)

o Conservatives: 4.3% (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 2.9% (down from 3.0%)

o ACT: 1.9% (up from 1.8%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.4% (steady)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (steady)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: Maori Party (85.0%, up from 80.0% yesterday), UnitedFuture (83.2%, down from 84.1%), ACT (81.3%, down from 85.8%) and Mana (76.8%, up from 73.1%)

• Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (53% probability for Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway compared with 50:50 between Lees-Galloway and National’s Jono Naylor yesterday)

o Port Hills (53% for National’s Nuk Korako, steady)

o Waimakariri (60% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, down from 69%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (67% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, steady)

o Te Atatu (69% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 79%)

o Te Tai Hauauru (69% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, up from 64%)

o Hutt South (70% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 73%)

o Christchurch Central (71% for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 69%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (75% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, up from 71%)

o Waiariki (77% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, steady)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 57 seats (up from 55 yesterday)

o Labour: 31 seats (steady)

o Green: 17 seats (down from 18)

o NZ First: 7 seats (down from 8)

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have 61 seats and could form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana/Maori Party would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (73% probability, up from 61% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (2.6%, down from 4.6%)

• David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (51% probability, down from 55% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, up from 55% yesterday)

• John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (55% probability, steady). However, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2015, the probability of him doing so is only 34% (down from 35% yesterday)

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 34% probability (up from 33% yesterday)

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September (steady compared with yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced on 18 September (steady)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady compared with yesterday)

• Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.20% of GDP (compared with deficit of 0.01% GDP yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 1.33 pm. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September

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