102,000 more registered electors likely to vote
A Horizon Research poll finds the turnout at this year’s general election could increase by about 3.2%.
Some 77.4% of who are registered now rate their chance of voting at 100%.
This compares with a 74.2% turnout of registered voters at the 2011 general election.
Horizon says this indicates about 102,364 more currently registered electors could vote compared with the last election.
The highest turnout at a New Zealand general election in the past 30 years was 93.7% in July 1984.
Horizon says survey results for those saying the chance of them voting is 100% most closely match actual turnout.
Turnout was 80.9% in 2005, 89.7% in 2008, and 74.2% in 2011.
The poll was conducted between August 28 and September 8. It had 2,012 respondents who are members of the HorizonPoll online research panel, representing the New Zealand 18+ population at the last census. Results were weighted by age,
gender, personal income, educational level, employment status and party vote at the 2011 general election to provide a
representative population sample. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error on the overall sample is +/-
2.2%.
For further information please contact Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, telephone 021 076 2040, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz
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