2 September 2014
Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer coalition deal with Labour
67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition
government if one is needed after September 20’s general election.
The majority preference for a change of Government among the party’s voters underscores the “difficult” decision making
party leader Winston Peters says he will face.
A new HorizonPoll
, surveying 1,676 eligible voters between Friday August 29 and Tuesday September 2, also finds 71.1% of those currently
intending to cast a party vote for New Zealand First would prefer a Labour-led government. 28.9% would prefer National.
Among New Zealand First’s 2011 voters 67.0% would prefer Labour, 33.0% National.
The result for all respondents reflects the potentially tight electoral race:
48.7% would prefer a National-led government, 51.3% a Labour led one. Given the survey’s margin of error the result is
too close to call.
The survey is of members of Horizon Research’s national online panel, representing the adult population at the last
census. Results are weighted by age, gender, personal income, educational qualifications and party voted for at the 2011
general election to ensure a representative population sample. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is
The maximum margin of error on the New Zealand First voter sub sample is +/- 7.1%. A preference for a Labour-led
government would still be found if the maximum margin of error were applied.
Coalition leadership preferences by intended 2014 party vote and 2011 general election party voteIf a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, for which party would you cast your party vote?If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?ALLACT New ZealandConserv-ativeGreen PartyLabour PartyManaPartyMaori PartyNational PartyNew Zealand First PartyUnited FutureOther partyWould choose not to voteNot eligible to voteDon't know Labour51.3%13.8%20.9%88.0%86.2%99.3%58.2%1.4%71.1%3.3%88.0%66.9%N/A71.9%National48.7%86.2%79.1%11.9%13.8%0.7%41.8%98.6%28.9%96.7%12.1%33.1%N/A28.1% N1,531259831253419115831939920268PARTY VOTE 2011If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?ALLACT New ZealandConservativeGreen PartyLabour PartyManaPartyMaori PartyNational PartyNew Zealand First PartyUnited FutureOther partyChose not to voteWas not eligible to voteDon't know or can't remember Labour47.6%0.0%32.7%93.9%93.2%100.0%55.7%8.7%67.0%28.5%80.0%71.3%51.0%52.4%National45.4%100.0%67.3%6.1%6.8%0.0%44.3%91.3%33.0%71.5%20.0%28.7%49.0%47.6% N1,53217422503621114520114104431032
Horizon’s July-August nationwide survey results on coalition leadership preferences are here