Wednesday, 20 August 2014
National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations provide a new challenge for PM
John Key’s leadership.
NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support since September 2013.
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows gain in support for National (48%, up 2%) now with a significant lead over a
potential Labour/Greens alliance (39%, down 3%) exactly a month before the New Zealand Election on September 20.
Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%,
unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for the Labour Party is 27.5% (down 2.5%), the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First
looks set to return to Parliament with 6.5% (up 1.5%) – the highest support for NZ First since September 2013, the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and
support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be the Key
Government being returned to Parliament.
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 139pts (up 4pts) with 63.5% (up 3.5%) of New
Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is
‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating (139) is substantially higher than
‘across the ditch’ in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week fell to 92.5pts (down 7pts).
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:
“The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%) with an election-winning lead over a Labour/ Greens alliance (39%)
only a month before the NZ Election. Last week’s release of Nicky Hagar’s new book ‘Dirty Politics’ has caused a stir in
the media although the full impact of some of Hagar’s explosive disclosures has yet to be seen.
“In light of Hagar’s new book though it is worth remembering that ‘dirty tricks’ in politics is nothing new – Politics
is ‘dirty’ and everyone knows that. What has changed in recent years is that clearly the advance of technology and the
increasing role of the Internet in everyone’s lives provide a new dimension to these sorts of revelations. The Internet
has opened up new levels of transparency and added an unprecedented level of scrutiny to the actions of all of us, and
politicians in particular.
“Along with these technological advancements also comes increased spying from Government agencies like the Government
Communications Securities Bureau (GCSB), and even more nefarious activities like hacking and collusion between
Ministerial staff and bloggers to discredit opponents – as revealed in Hagar’s new book.
“In terms of the New Zealand Election though, the most important thing to assess is how Prime Minister John Key handles
the revelations and the fall-out. If Key demonstrates strong leadership and competence, electors will reward Key for
these qualities rather than blame him for the shortcomings of those around him – the Roy Morgan Scoop NZ Election Reactor is the best tool available to monitor how New Zealand electors judge their leaders.
“The other point to keep in mind is that timing is crucial during elections. The release of Hagar’s book a month before
the election gives all the leaders time to respond, and electors will judge their response, whereas information that is
revealed in the final days of an election campaign can have an immediate impact that doesn’t give time for leaders to
react.
“Looking directly at today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the main parties are essentially unchanged on the results
of the 2011 NZ Election. An exception to this is the new Internet Party (1.5% support) which is set to win
representation in Parliament if Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira holds his seat of Te Tai Toekerau. However, a
significant difference compared to three years ago is the high Government Confidence Rating (139pts, up 4pts). This is
significantly higher than immediately prior to the last election when the final pre-election New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll
showed Government Confidence at 118.5, and a strong sign for Key as he seeks re-election.
“Most notably however, the ‘fourth party’ of New Zealand politics, NZ First, has increased its share of the vote to 6.5%
(up 1.5%) – a level of support that would see all eight NZ First MPs returned to Parliament, and likely give NZ First
Leader Winston Peters the chance to once again choose who New Zealand’s Prime Minister will be. Peters last held a
Ministerial post when he served as Foreign Minister during the last term of Helen Clark’s Prime Ministership (2005-08).
“Although the ongoing discussion about ‘Dirty Politics’ appears likely to damage support for National, today’s New
Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First may be the biggest beneficiary of a discredited National Government rather than
the main opposition Labour and Greens parties.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile
telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5%
(unchanged) didn’t name a party.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.
The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed
as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general
guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting)
should be made as appropriate.Sample SizePercentage Estimate40%-60%25% or 75%10% or 90%5% or 95%500±4.5±3.9±2.7±1.91,000±3.2±2.7±1.9±1.41,500±2.6±2.2±1.5±1.12,000±2.2±1.9±1.3±1.0
Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts
These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide
election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.
In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns
to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote
at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the
November 26, 2011 General Election:
PRIMARY VOTENationalLabourGreen
PartyNZ
FirstMaori
Party*Mana
Party*Internet*ACT
NZUnited
FutureConservatives*OtherELECTIONS%%%%%%%%%%%July 27, 200220.941.3710.4n/an/an/a7.16.7n/a6.6September 17, 200539.141.15.35.722.12n/an/a1.512.67n/a2.48November 8, 200844.9333.996.724.072.39n/an/a3.650.87n/a3.38November 26, 201147.3127.4811.066.591.431.08n/a1.070.602.650.73ROY MORGAN POLLJun 8-24, 201247.5321241.50.5n/a0.50.5n/a1.5Jun 25-Jul 8, 201245.532.5134.510.5n/a0.50.5n/a2Jul 9-22, 201247.530115.510.5n/a10.53^Jul 23-Aug 5, 2012443214421n/a0.50.51.50.5Aug 13-26, 201244.53214.552.5^n/a1^0.5^Aug 27-Sep. 9, 201246.53112.54.52.51n/a0.5^10.5Sep 10-23, 201243.53311.552.51.5n/a0.5^20.5Sep 24-Oct 7, 201241.533.513.56.51.5^n/a0.50.520.5Oct 8-21, 201243.529137.53.50.5n/a0.5^20.5Oct 29-Nov 11, 201245.532.510.5521n/a0.50.51.51Nov 12-25, 20124531.513.56.51^n/a0.50.51.5^Nov 26-Dec 9, 201245.533.51151.51n/a1^10.5Jan 2-13, 20134631.512520.5n/a0.50.51.50.5Jan 14-17, 20134631.513.55.51.50.5n/a0.5^0.50.5Jan 28-Feb 10, 20134434.513.540.50.5n/a0.5^20.5Feb 11-24, 201347.530.512.532.50.5n/a0.50.520.5Feb 25-Mar 10, 201343.532.513.552^n/a0.50.520.5Mar 11- 24 , 20134434.51332.50.5n/a0.511^Apr 1-14, 201340.535.513.5520.5n/a0.50.51.50.5Apr 15-28, 201346.531.5114.51.51n/a0.50.521Apr 29-May 12, 2013443212521n/a1.50.51.50.5May 13-26, 20134135124.520.5n/a0.50.52.51.5Jun 3-16, 2013443311.5621n/a0.5-2^Jun 17-30, 201346.531.5133.51.50.5n/a-0.521Jul 1-14, 2013473111.54.521.5n/a0.5^1.50.5Jul 15-28, 201351291041.51n/a1^1.51Jul 29-Aug 11, 2013443414320.5n/a0.5^11Aug 12-25, 20134431.5145.520.5n/a0.50.510.5Aug 26-Sep. 8, 20134132.5156.510.5n/a10.51.50.5Sep 16-29, 2013423711.54.510.5n/a0.50.520.5Sep 30-Oct 13, 201341.53712.551.50.5n/a0.5^0.51Oct 14-27, 20134235.5114.51.50.5n/a10.52.51Oct 28-Nov 10, 201345.53212.551.51n/a-0.51.50.5Nov 11-24, 201344.534113.51.51n/a0.50.521.5Nov 25-Dec 8, 20134530.514.551.51n/a^^20.5Jan 6-19, 201443.533.512.5420.5n/a^0.52.51Jan 20-Feb 2, 20144733114.51.510.5^^1.5^Feb 3-16, 20144830125.50.510.510.51^Feb 17-Mar 2, 201448.530.510.54.51.50.5^10.52.5^Mar 3-16, 201445.531.5143.52^^0.50.51.51Mar 17-30, 20144332135.51.50.50.50.50.52.50.5Mar 31-Apr 13, 201448.528.511.55.51110.5 -20.5Apr 21-May 4, 201442.53114.56111.50.50.50.51May 5-18, 201445.530.513.56110.50.5-10.5May 19-June 1, 201452.52994.51.50.50.51-10.5June 2-15, 201449.52812411.510.5^1.51June 16-29, 20144828125.51.511.51^10.5June 30-July 13, 20145123.5156110.50.50.51^July 14-27,2014 46301251.51.510.50.511
August 4-17, 2014 4827.511.56.5111.50.50.511
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; The Mana Party was launched in April 2011. The Conservative Party was
launched prior to the 2011 New Zealand Election and first measured by the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll in July 2012. The
Internet Party was launched in January 2014.. ^ Result less than 0.5%.
Two-Party Preferred: National Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the
November 26, 2011 General Election:National Party-led Government*Parliamentary
Opposition Parties# Election, November 8, 200851.8448.16Election, November 26, 201150.4146.21ROY MORGAN POLLJuly 9-22, 20125047July 23-August 5, 20124751August 13-26, 20124851.5August 27-Sep. 9, 201249.549Sep. 10-23, 201246.551Sep. 24 – Oct. 7, 20124453.5Oct. 8-21, 201247.550Oct. 29 – Nov. 11, 201248.549Nov. 12-25, 20124751.5Nov. 26 – Dec. 9, 20124850.5Jan. 2-13, 20134949Jan. 14-17, 20134851Jan. 28 – Feb. 10, 20134552.5Feb. 11-24, 20135146.5Feb. 25 – March 10, 201346.551March 11- 24 , 20134851April 1-14, 201343.554.5April 15-28, 20134948April 29 – May 12, 20134850May 13-26, 20134452June 3-16, 201346.551.5June 17-30, 201348.548.5July 1-14, 201349.548.5July 15-28, 201353.544July 29 – August 11, 201346.551.5August 12-25, 20134751.5August 26 – Sep. 8, 201343.554.5Sep. 16-29, 20134453.5Sep. 30-Oct 13, 201343.555Oct 14-27, 20134551.5Oct 28-Nov 10, 201347.550.5Nov 11-24, 20134749.5Nov 25-Dec 8, 201346.551Jan 6-19, 20144650.5Jan 20-Feb 2, 201448.549.5Feb 3-16, 20145048.5Feb 17-Mar 2, 201451.546Mar 3-16, 201448.549Mar 17-30, 201445.551Mar 31–Apr 13, 20145046.5Apr 21-May 4, 201444.552.5May 5-18, 20144751May 19-June 1, 20145543June 2-15, 20145145.5June 16-29, 201450.548June 30-July 13, 20145346July 14-27, 201448.549.5August 4-17, 20145048
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green
Party, NZ First, Internet-Mana Party alliance. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament.
Finding No. 5747 is taken from Computer Report No. 2407
The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things
are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)Jan 14-27,
2013Jan 28-Feb 10,
2013Feb 11-24,
2013Feb 25-Mar 10,
2013Mar 11-24,
2013Apr 1-14,
2013Apr 15-28,
2013Apr 29- May 12,
2013%%%%%%%%Right direction57555451.553.551.554.556.5Wrong direction30.530.532.537.53435.53430.5Roy Morgan GCR#126.5124.5121.5114119.5116120.5126Can’t say12.514.513.51112.51311.513TOTAL100100100100100100100100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)May 13-26,
2013June 3-16,
2013June 17-30,
2013July 1-14,
2013July 15-28,
2013July 29-Aug 11,
2013Aug 12-25,
2013Aug 26-Sep 8,
2013%%%%%%%%Right direction55.554575858.5585852.5Wrong direction32.533.53229.5303030.535.5Roy Morgan GCR#123120.5125128.5128.5128127.5117Can’t say1212.51112.511.51211.512TOTAL100100100100100100100100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)Sep 16-29,
2013Sep 30-Oct 13,
2013Oct 14-27,
2013Oct 28-Nov 10, 2013Nov 11-24,
2013Nov 25-Dec 8,
2013Jan 6-19,
2014%%%%%%%Right direction595557.5615958.563Wrong direction29.53128.527.52928.523.5Roy Morgan GCR#129.5124129133.5130130139.5Can’t say11.5141411.5121313.5TOTAL100100100100100100100NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)Jan 20-Feb 2,
2014Feb 3-16,
2014Feb 17-Mar 2,
2014Mar 3-16,
2014Mar 17-30
2014Mar 31-Apr 13,
2014Apr 21-May 4,
2014%%%%%%%Right direction63.563.56561616562Wrong direction24.523.523.525.5282226.5Roy Morgan GCR#139140141.5135.5133143135.5Can’t say121311.513.5111311.5TOTAL100100100100100100100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)May 5-18,
2014May 19-June 1
2014June 2-15,
2014June 16-29,
2014June 30-July 13
2014July 14-27
2014Aug 4-17,
2014%%%%%%%Right direction6064.563.56565.56063.5Wrong direction28242423.5232524.5Roy Morgan GCR#132140.5139.5141.5142.5135139Can’t say1211.512.511.511.51512TOTAL100100100100100100100
New Zealand Primary Vote
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New Zealand Roy Morgan GCR
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