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Medium-Long term Employment Outlook released
29 November 2013
Medium-Long term Employment Outlook released
The Ministry of
Business, Innovation and Employment today released its
annual Medium-Long Term Employment Outlook for the 2011-21
March year period.
The outlook will be used to inform the Ministry’s medium-long term policy advice relating to immigration policy settings, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training.
Broken down by industry and occupation, it has a particular focus on labour supply constraints arising from an ageing population, and highlights the importance of future productivity gains to maintain economic growth.
The key points are:
• Total employment is expected to increase by 180,300 (1.6% per year) over the 2011-16 period, and by about 174,500 (1.4% per year) over the subsequent five years to 2021.
• Strong employment growth is expected in the primary sector, primary processing, certain manufacturing industries such as machinery and equipment, metal products and in construction-related activities. Service industries, including the health, cultural and personal services sectors, will also experience modest to strong employment growth. The growth will be strongest for highly-skilled occupations, including managers and professionals.
• Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are expected to account for more than one-third of employment growth over the 2011-16 period. This will be sustained over the 2016-21 period as the construction sector activity related to the Canterbury rebuild is expected to continue beyond 2016. The food processing, retailing, accommodation and personal service industries are expected to create most of the remaining opportunities.
• The Medium-Long term employment growth beyond the recovery from the recent economic downturn is expected to be a mix of export-led growth and growth driven by domestic household spending along with the Canterbury re-build. This has associated impacts for labour market outcomes across various industries.
The report is available at this link: http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/research/medium-long-term-employment-outlook-2021/
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