PANEL DISCUSSIONS
HOSTED BY SUSAN WOOD
In response to MOIRA COATSWORTH and CHRIS HIPKINS interviews
SUSAN WOOD
Welcome to the panel. Jennifer Curtin from Auckland University; former ACT MP Stephen Franks; and Mike Williams, former
president of the Labour Party. Good morning to you all. Mike, I’ll start with you at the end there. The polls are
fascinating. We’re seeing a bit of a bolter there with Jacinda Ardern, and Grant Robertson - no traction very much, and
not in Wellington.
MIKE WILLIAMS - Former Labour Party President
Yeah, that’s rather strange, but I think there’s a whole lot of things going on there. One is name recognition. I, for
example, have known David Cunliffe for about 15 years. I think I’ve met Grant Robertson maybe twice. And Cunliffe was
quite a successful minister. He untangled the Telecom thing. So there is a bit of name recognition going on there.
Jacinda Ardern - the power of Breakfast television, as you suggested in the break, I think there. Also very articulate.
But I’d be encouraged by all of those people.
SUSANHow are you seeing it, Stephen?
STEPHEN FRANKS - Former ACT MP
I was surprised at the strength of support for David in Wellington, and I think it probably does speak to his prominence
as a minister.
SUSANTwice the support that Grant Robertson has in Wellington.
STEPHENYes, yeah.
SUSANWhere you’d expect Grant to have the support and perhaps the name recognition.
STEPHENYes, exactly. That really is curious. I think the main thing, though, is this is an insider’s… What’s the right word?
There aren’t going to be many people interested in this until it becomes a real horse race.
SUSANUntil we actually know who’s in the running.
STEPHENYeah, and if it’s very clear very early, then the Labour Party won’t get out of it what you try and get from a primary,
which is recognition, attention, the lift in familiarity. Yeah.
SUSANI mean, Jennifer, we’re realistically looking at a two-horse race at least, aren’t we? We’re talking about Cunliffe,
we’re talking about Roberston, and some speculation around this morning Shane Jones is still mulling it over, so it
could be a three-horse race.
JENNIFER CURTIN - Political Scientist
Yes, it will probably come down to a two-horse race, I think. But I think the Jacinda Ardern poll is really interesting,
particularly for young members of the party, and she’s obviously got some traction with that under-34 group. And the
difference is that Cunliffe really resonates with the older group, when you look at those breakdowns, and I think that
really does talk to his experience of having been in Cabinet during government, which Robertson, for all his presence as
a political operator and so on, really doesn’t have that governmental experience yet, and people like to know that.
SUSANMike, the unions, we know, having 20 per cent of the vote in this. They’ve made it really clear. ‘We want someone who
can take John Key out and win the next election.’ Looking at that poll at this point, and they will be looking at the
poll, won’t they, going, ‘Hey, dream team. Cunliffe, Ardern.’
MIKEYeah, that poll will impact on the union vote. And can I just say I thought Moira Coatsworth did very well, and I’ve
read the rules that they’ve put out, and there’s a lot of good thought gone into this. It specifically precludes a block
vote by a union. Let me make that point. So I think that poll will impact on the unions. But let’s also look at a
technicality here. If there are three in the race, then the race becomes preferential. If it’s two, then it’s a First
Past the Post. So if Shane Jones did put his name in, and I hope he does, because it will certainly enliven the process.
SUSANIndeed.
MIKEHe’s got twice the sense of humour of both of the other contenders. Then it becomes preferential, and his block of
votes, where does that go when he comes third, if he comes third? So there’s a lot of water to go under this very
interesting bridge.
SUSANStephen, I think you and ACT ran a similar sort of process. How do you make it go, and I know there’s a code of conduct,
but in the US, the presidential races, they knock each other out.
STEPHENWell, I think that’s how democracy should work. I mean, otherwise it’s a beauty parade. And I found the ACT one just
horrible, because you’re out there, each saying things that you know- By then, you’ve become a performer. You know how
to appeal to your audience. But the important thing in an election isn’t all the nice things that we would all agree we
would like. The important thing is you want the skeletons out, and a really sound election process focuses on what is we
should be scared about. For example, in this one, is David Cunliffe Labour’s Rudd? You know, is there a man who can
appeal to the people but is actually toxic inside because they don’t have loyalty? We won’t get that. In a beauty
parade, we won’t get that, because they can’t afford to, as Chris Hipkins said - and he should be in this list because
he did so well - he wants at the end everyone to be united. Well, that’s not going to allow anything more than a beauty
parade.
SUSANJennifer, Moira pretty much made the point, or tried to, in that interview with Corin about more democracy, better
democracy. I mean, does this sort of race provide that?
JENNIFERUm, to some degree it does because of the party membership being able to participate, and I think this is really where
Labour’s wanting to go. It’s wanting party renewal, and this always happens in opposition. That’s the time when you
change the rules to enable more participation, and, really, what we saw at the last election is not just that Labour’s
vote dropped to 27 per cent but also turnout was really low, especially among the young voters who they hoped would turn
out and vote for them. Now party participation by members will have a flow-on effect, they’re hoping, to turnout. And so
running a no contest is a bit of risk, really, if their intentions are to sort of galvanise the membership, particularly
out in the regions, outside Wellington, where they want people to start being active at grassroots level and getting
other people out to vote.
SUSANMike, unity. It was one word that certainly came out of both of those interviews. But you’re running a divisive -
potentially - race. How do you come out and then all hold hands and sing Kumbaya at the end together?
MIKEWell, let me make one observation. It’s a hell of a lot easier to generate party unity in an election year when you’ve
got that hurdle quite close, and we’re very nearly into an election year. Other parties around the world, social
democratic parties, have this process and then do swing in behind a leader, and I think that can happen here. What
impressed me with both Moira and Chris Hipkins is a relatively mature view. ‘Let’s have a scrap, get it over with and,
you know, sit down and have a cup of tea and onwards and upwards.’ But I think Jennifer made a useful point there. The
Labour Party has been renewing itself. I went to the conference last year. I normally don’t take much part in party
affairs. When you’ve done something, it’s over and done with. I took Helen’s lead on that. But I noticed a lot of new
faces there and quite young people. Now, this will invigorate and revitalise the party. And you’ve got to recall the
fact that the Labour Party was actually 10,000 votes away from leading the government last time. Now, it’s that last one
per cent that your organisation on the ground can go out and get. And Jennifer’s dead right. The Labour Party’s problem
was turnout. Three quarters of a million people in the last election got on the roll and didn’t bother to vote. Now,
partly that was a result of it looked like a foregone conclusion, but partly they were not invigorated in the way that
this process can achieve.
SUSANFair enough, yeah.
STEPHENBut the problem for all the parties now is that the kind of people who are involved in parties are actually not your
swing voters. They’re actually quite unpleasant, in many respects. (MIKE AND SUSAN LAUGH)
SUSANWho are you calling unpleasant?
MIKEHe’s talking about the ACT Party. They’re all very unpleasant.
STEPHENNot at all. In fact, I’ve spent more time in the Labour Party than I ever did in the ACT Party. But they are politically
driven, power-hungry people, and Shane Jones is the only one on that list who represents the kind of voters that used to
be the backbone of Labour. And there is a risk that you activate your party, and they select a candidate who is actually
unelectable in the sense that he reflects the preoccupations of those who like the power game.
SUSANMike, you mentioned the Helen word. Was Helen involved in rolling David Shearer, to your knowledge?
MIKENot to my knowledge. I maintain a regular email relationship with Helen. I talked to her when she was on Q+A, was it a
week ago?
SUSANA couple of weeks ago, she was here.
MIKEShe does not take part. She obviously has an opinion. I think she would be backing David Cunliffe. Let’s have that out
in the open. But she doesn’t try and manipulate matters from New York in the way John Key thinks she does.
SUSANOk, let’s run through the candidates quickly. Cunliffe - and I will bring it back to you again, Mike. This perception
that he’s disliked. People roll their eyes within the caucus. They don’t want to work with him. What is the problem
there? Is he the Rudd, as Stephen said?
MIKEThat’s possible. That’s an interesting observation from Stephen. I know the guy, I like the guy, but he has the ability
to polarise people. You either love him or you hate him. Now, he has actually addressed that. He’s not stupid. And a lot
of people have softened towards David Cunliffe in the last year. He’s actually done- He took the demotion like a man and
went to the backbench, shut up. When he got given a portfolio, which was Fisheries, normally a dead portfolio, he
actually made something of it. And it’s him who’s brought this snapper problem to the fore. So I think he has mended
fences, and what I note is that within the caucus, and I’ve talked to a lot of them over the last three days, there are
some very good brains who are yet to make up their mind. And that is quite something I did not expect.
SUSANWith Grant Robertson, Stephen, he’s gay. Will it matter to the electorate?
STEPHENI don’t think it will matter in any polls, because people aren’t frank unless they’re-
SUSANWell, are we ready for a gay prime minister, if that-?
STEPHENI think New Zealanders are sort of assumed to be more bigoted than they are. We had Marilyn Waring as a National MP many
years ago come out, and there was an assumption that the house would fall down, and it was indifference. No, I don’t
think that’ll be the issue. It will be much more whether the experience inside the party is going to resound. Grant has
been attributed with credit for the student loans scheme within the previous administration. I would expect that that
won’t be discussed. They talked about discussing the issues in this campaign. Those sorts of things won’t be discussed.
It’ll be an opportunity, just like party conferences are today, for a TV extravaganza.
SUSANSo, Jennifer, really what we’re hearing here is it’s going to be sort of personality contest, and yet with David
Shearer, part of his problem was he didn’t win the personality contest on TV, but a lack of new ideas. Are we going to
hear some new ideas from whoever’s in this race?
JENNIFERWell, I think Labour has come up with new policy ideas. I think Shearer’s problem was communicating them in a really
clear way that didn’t sort of stumble too much through the media. Cunliffe has some work to do still perhaps with the
media and how he’s received through television, because people who meet him face to face find him a really good guy, you
know, as well. So I think, obviously, the communication skills and how they’re doing that work through to voters will
really matter.
SUSANCunliffe, Robertson, Jones. Mike, I know you’ve got a vote in this. Who’s the one who can take John Key on, because at
the end of the day, they’ve got to be able to do that.
MIKEAny one of them could, and I do have a vote, and I’m actually a floating voter at the moment. What I always said when I
was doing selections as president of the Labour Party is that I will wait to hear the speeches. And on a number of
occasions, I was actually swayed by the speeches. So I want to see that. Any one of them could take on John Key.
Robertson seems to have the edge over Cunliffe in the house but not by much. And I think Shane Jones, that could be a
lot of fun. (SUSAN LAUGHS) I don’t know that John Key could handle Shane Jones at all.
SUSANWho are you liking the look of, briefly, Stephen?
STEPHENI suspect it will be David Cunliffe, because, in the end, the union do hold the swing vote.
SUSANThank you, panel.
ENDS