Finding No. 4867
Available on Website: www.roymorgan.com
On February 28, 2013
NATIONAL (47.5%) HAS HUGE LEAD OVER LABOUR (30.5%)
BIGGEST SINCE JULY 2012 & WOULD WIN CLOSE ELECTION
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47.5%
(up 3.5% since early February and the highest since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future
0.5% (up 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 30.5% (down 4%); Greens are 12.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5%
(unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party with some minor
Party support would win the Election.
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3pts to 121.5 with 54% (down 1%) of New
Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is
‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a surge in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (47.5%, up 3.5%)
now with its biggest lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (30.5%, down 4%) since July 2012. Support for third
party the Greens has also dropped to 12.5% (down 1%).
“Today’s result was surveyed prior to Opposition Leader David Shearer’s cabinet reshuffle and suggests the changes were
badly needed by an Opposition Party that is yet to make a serious dent in the strong lead held by Prime Minister Key’s
National since the 2008 New Zealand Election, now over 4 years ago. Although the next NZ Election is still over 18
months ago, Labour must significantly improve its position if it is to have a real chance of regaining power in late
2014.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of
1,052 electors from February 11 – 24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.
The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed
as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general
guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.Sample SizePercentage Estimate40%-60%25% or 75%10% or 90%5% or 95%500±4.5±3.9±2.7±1.91,000±3.2±2.7±1.9±1.41,500±2.5±2.2±1.5±1.1
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the
November 26, 2011 General Election:
PRIMARY VOTENationalLabourGreen
PartyNZ
FirstMaori
Party*Mana
Party*ACT
NZUnited
FutureConservativesOther%%%%%%%%%%General Election, July 27, 200220.941.3710.4n/an/a7.16.7n/a6.6General Election, September 17, 200539.141.15.35.722.12n/a1.512.67n/a2.48General Election, November 8, 200844.9333.996.724.072.39n/a3.650.87n/a3.38General Election, November 26, 201147.3127.4811.066.591.431.081.070.602.650.73ROY MORGAN POLLJanuary 3-15, 20124727.514.551.510.50.5n/a2.5January 16-29, 20124630.5135.520.50.50.5n/a1.5January 30 – February 12, 201245.53111.561.5110.5n/a2February 13-26, 201245.531.51351.510.50.5n/a1.5February 27-March 11, 201248.53012.5510.50.50.5n/a1.5March 12-April 1, 20124430.51751.50.50.50.5n/a0.5April 2-15, 201249.526.512.56.51.51^1n/a1.5April 16-29, 20124728.51551.50.50.50.5n/a1.5April 30-May 13, 201244.530155.510.5^1n/a2.5May 14-27, 20124430.513.552110.5n/a2.5May 28-June 7, 2012463112.55.51.51^0.5n/a2June 8-24, 201247.5321241.50.50.50.5n/a1.5June 25 – July 8, 201245.532.5134.510.50.50.5n/a2July 9-22, 201247.530115.510.510.53^July 23-August 5, 20124432144210.50.51.50.5August 13-26, 201244.53214.552.5^1^0.5^August 27-September 9, 201246.53112.54.52.510.5^10.5September 10-23, 201243.53311.552.51.50.5^20.5September 24 – October 7, 201241.533.513.56.51.5^0.50.520.5October 8-21, 201243.529137.53.50.50.5^20.5October 29 – November 11, 201245.532.510.55210.50.51.51November 12-25, 20124531.513.56.51^0.50.51.5^November 26 – December 9, 201245.533.51151.511^10.5January 2-13, 20134631.512520.50.50.51.50.5January 14-17, 20134631.513.55.51.50.50.5^0.50.5January 28 – February 10, 20134434.513.540.50.50.5^20.5February 11-24, 201347.530.512.532.50.50.50.520.5
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%. The Mana Party was launched in July 2011.
Two-Party Preferred: National Party led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the
November 26, 2011 General Election:National Party-led Government*Parliamentary
Opposition Parties# General Election, November 8, 200851.8448.16General Election, November 26, 201150.4146.21ROY MORGAN POLLJanuary 3-15, 201249.548January 16-29, 20124949.5January 30 – February 12, 201248.549.5February 13-26, 20124850.5February 27-March 11, 201250.548March 12-April 1, 201246.553April 2-15, 20125246.5April 16-29, 201249.549April 30-May 13, 201246.551May 14-27, 201247.550May 28-June 7, 20124851.5June 8-24, 20125048.5June 25 – July 8, 201247.550.5July 9-22, 20125047July 23-August 5, 20124751August 13-26, 20124851.5August 27-September 9, 201249.549September 10-23, 201246.551September 24 – October 7, 20124453.5October 8-21, 201247.550October 29 – November 11, 201248.549November 12-25, 20124751.5November 26-December 9, 20124850.5January 2-13, 20134949January 14-27, 20134851January 28 – February 10, 20134552.5February 11-24, 20135146.5
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green
Party, NZ First, Mana Party. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament.
Finding No. 4867 is taken from Computer Report No. 2373
The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things
are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)Oct 24-Nov 6,
2011Nov 7-18,
2011Nov 22-24,
2011Jan 3-15,
2012Jan 16-29,
2012Jan 30-Feb 12,
2012Feb 13-26,
2012Feb 27-Mar 11,
2012Mar 12-Apr 1,
2012Apr 2-15,
2012Apr 16-29,
2012Apr 30-May 13,
2012%%%%%%%%%%%%Right direction58.560.549.560.5615753.552.553.555.55551Wrong direction27.5243128283032.53429.53132.535.5Roy Morgan GCR#131136.5118.5132.5133127121118.5124124.5122.5115.5Can’t say1415.519.511.511131413.51713.512.513.5TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100100
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)May 14-27,
2012May 28-June 7,
2012June 8-24,
2012June 25-July 8,
2012July 9-22,
2012Jul 23-Aug 5,
2012Aug 13-26,
2012Aug 27-Sep 9,
2012Sep 10-23,
2012Sep 24-Oct 7,
2012Oct 8-21,
2012Oct 29 – Nov 11,
2012%%%%%%%%%%%%Right direction49485251.5504949.55147.5444951.5Wrong direction3837.534.53436.534.534.534.537.5383934Roy Morgan GCR#111110.5117.5117.5113.5114.5115116.5110106110117.5Can’t say1314.513.514.513.516.51614.515181214.5TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100100
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)Nov 12-25,
2012Nov 26-Dec 9,
2012Jan 2-13,
2013Jan 14-17,
2013Jan 28 – Feb 10,
2013Feb 11-24
2013%%%%%%Right direction48.55353.5575554Wrong direction37.53433.530.530.532.5Roy Morgan GCR#111119120126.5124.5121.5Can’t say14131312.514.513.5TOTAL100100100100100100
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the
percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the
country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).