Media release
Sunday December 2, 2012
Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises
National and Labour have enjoyed significant increases in support among eligible voters.
There would be a knife edge choice between potential National and Labour led coalitions if an election were held now.
New Zealand First, with control of the cross benches, would determine what happened in Parliament.
A nationwide HorizonPoll of 2,284 people 18+, conducted between November 23 and December2, shows National support has risen 6.2% since September to 31%. At the 2011 general election National won 32.31% of the votes of the total population aged 18+.
In the latest HorizonPoll Labour support has risen 4.7% to 23.8% of the total eligible voting population 18+.
It won 18.77% of all people aged 18+ at the 2011 general election.
New Zealand First is up 0.5% to 8.3% in the HorizonPoll, a 0.5% lift.
The Green party has 10.1%, down from 11.4 in late September.18+ POPULATION SUPPORT TRACKED FROM 2011 GENERAL ELECTION 2011 electionApril 24- May 6, 2012May 18 – June 6, 2012July 6-18, 2012September 21-25, 2012Nov23- Dec 2 2012National32.3128.126.626.524.831Labour18.7723.423.220.519.123.8Green7.55118.21311.410.1NZ First4.55.46.45.97.88.3
The results are weighted by six criteria, including party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult
population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.1%.
COALITION OPTIONS
The results show the current National-led coalition would have 33.9% of adult population support, while a Labour-led
coalition with the Green and Mana parties would have 34.6%.
NZ First could deliver 42.2% total support for a National-led coalition, 42.9% for a Labour-led one.
POTENTIAL COALITIONS - NZ FIRST ON CROSS BENCHESNat ledLab ledAct0.8Green10.1Maori1.6Labour23.6National31Mana0.9United Future0.5Total33.934.6NZ First8.38.3Total42.242.9
Support for the Conservative Party, another potential coalition party for National, is 3.2% (3.1% September). 5% or a
seat in Parliament under current electoral law would be needed to the Conservatives to have a say in which main party
led a coalition government.
The poll covers the period during which Labour held its annual conference. There was significant media coverage of
leadership issues and a new policy to build 100,000 affordable homes.
NATIONAL, LABOUR VOTERS COME HOME
National’s rise results from a major return of support from those who voted for it in 2011.
In late September it had the support of 68.3% of its 2011 election voters. This is now up nearly 10% to 78%.
In September 18% of former National voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for. This has fallen to 5.6%.
Labour’s rise also reflects a 7% leap in 2011 voter loyalty, from 70.1% in September to 77% now.
The number of 2011 Labour voters who don’t know who to vote for has dropped from 14% to 5.6%.
The Greens have 75.4% voter loyalty, NZ First 76%, Act 49.5% - and the Maori Party just 21.9%. It has bled support to National, Labour and Mana.
The following tables shows results for all parties and current support of 2011 party voters:Q46. If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?
Multichoice - Single Answer Only
A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't knowTotalABCDEFGHIJKLMALL22860.8% 3.2% 10.1% 23.8% 0.9% 1.6% 31% 8.3% 0.5% 1.1% 6.8% 0.4% 11.4% 100%PARTY VOTE 2011ACT New Zealand0.6%49.5% 1.7% 5.6% 11.1% 13.9% 18.1% 100% Chose not to vote16.5%0.4% 2.4% 6.1% 17.6% 6.3% 9.4% 4.9% 35.9% 0.4% 16.8% 100% Green Party7.1%0.2% 1.7% 75.4% 15% 0.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 4.2% 100% National Party29.9%0.4% 3.3% 1.1% 6.1% 0.7% 78.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 5.6% 100% New Zealand First Party4.2%0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 14.4% 0.2% 1.5% 76% 0.2% 5.2% 100% Was not eligible to vote2.8%9.2% 45.4% 6.6% 25.3% 3.4% 10.1% 100% Conservative2.1%62.7% 0.8% 8.8% 3.6% 2.3% 1.7% 20% 100% Labour Party17.4%1.5% 6.6% 77% 0.5% 1.6% 4% 3.2% 0.1% 5.6% 100% Don't know or can't remember10%4.8% 10.5% 3.5% 26.7% 8.8% 4.7% 41% 100% Mana Party0.8%1.2% 9.4% 70.7% 12.8% 5.9% 100% Maori Party0.8%5.4% 17.6% 21.9% 15.9% 25.9% 7.2% 6.1% 100% Other party0.1%16.5% 83.5% 100% United Future0.4%2.9% 5% 4.1% 26.2% 59.2% 2.7% 100%
Results of the September HorizonPoll party vote survey are here.
Web published results of this survey are here.
The November 2012 Roy Morgan poll also showing the current National-led coalition would be defeated by a narrow margin
if an election were held now is here.
ENDS