iPredict Newsletter - Govt expected to go full term
IPREDICT LTD
NEW ZEALAND
ELECTION NEWSLETTER #3:
13 July 2012
https://www.ipredict.co.nz
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Key
Points:
•
Government expected to go full term
•
Election now 50/50 after National recovers
fractionally
• No recession or fiscal surplus before
election
• King to
run for Wellington mayoralty and Jones to be criticised by
Auditor-General
•
MMP review expected to propose reducing
threshold to 4% and abolishing one-seat rule
•
Turia and Sharples both picked to step down as
Maori Party co-leaders
•
Banks highly vulnerable as Act leader
but no Epsom by-election before
election
Introduction
This is the
third newsletter summarising forecasts by the 7100
registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions
market, iPredict, of the results of the next New Zealand General Election.
Anyone else wants to trade can do so by signing up for free
at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=register.
The
newsletter will be produced periodically, with greater
frequency as we move closer to the election, which must be
held by 24 January 2015.
Each newsletter will provide a
snapshot of market forecasts, taken at a random time to
avoid manipulation by political parties and activists.
Today’s was taken at 9.15 am (New Zealand
Time).
Election Date
The election is
now overwhelmingly expected to be held in the fourth quarter of 2014 (85% probability,
up from 75% three weeks ago) with less than a 10% chance it will be held in
2012 or 2013.
Economic
Context
Traders believe there is a 30% chance of
a recession before the next General
Election, down from 31% three weeks ago. There has been
a small increase in confidence that the Government will
achieve its target of fiscal surplus by 2014/15, to 22% up
from 20% three weeks ago, however a deficit of between 0.5%
and 0.75% of GDP continues to be been as most likely.
Stocks on New Zealand’s short-term economic prospects can
be found at https://www.ipredict.conz/app.php?do=browse&cat=5
with stocks on its longer-term prospects available at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=885.
Political
Developments
Confidence that the Government will
complete the sale of 49% of the shares in Mighty River Power
has fallen in recent weeks. New stocks have
been launched today asking whether or not at least
100,000,000 shares in Mighty River Power will be sold by the
end of Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 respectively. Privatisation of
Christchurch City Council assets is not expected.
The Auditor-General is
expected, with 80% probability, to criticise the probity of Shane Jones'
decision to give Bill Liu citizenship, but Mr Jones is
not expected to resign from parliament
in the near future.
Tim Shadbolt, Dave Cull, Julie
Hardaker, Jono Naylor and Len Brown are expected to be re-elected mayors of Invercargill, Dunedin,
Hamilton, Palmerston North and Auckland respectively, while
re-election is not expected for either Christchurch’s Bob
Parker or Wellington’s Celia Wade-Brown.
Annette King
is expected to stand for the Wellington mayoralty and there is a 73%
probability of a by-election in her Rongotai electorate
before the next General Election. Aaron Keown is strongly expected to
stand for the Christchurch mayoralty.
A by-election is not expected in the Epsom electorate
before the next General Election and Kim Dotcom appears safe from extradition until 1
January 2014 at the earliest.
A deal between the New
Zealand Government and SKYCITY Entertainment to build a
National Convention Centre in exchange for regulatory
changes is expected to be announced before November
2012. It is strongly expected to involve 350 or more new pokie machines
A split purchasing age for alcohol is
expected, with 86% probability.
Former ACC Minister Nick
Smith is not expected to be re-appointed a minister
this year.
Nobody is expected to be found to have been
responsible for leaking Michelle Boag’s email to
Judith Collins on ACC matters to the media.
National’s
Aaron Gilmore and Labour’s Carol Beaumont are both expected back in
parliament before the next election, suggesting resignations
of at least one National and one Labour list MP are expected
this parliamentary term.
Election
Rules
There is now a 90% probability (up from
80% three weeks ago) that the MMP review’s initial proposal paper
will recommend reducing the threshold for seats in
parliament from the current 5% to 4% and just a 10%
probability (down from 29% three weeks ago) that it will
recommend keeping the one-seat rule which waives the 5%
threshold for additional list MPs. The paper is not
expected to recommend a ban on candidates standing as both
electorate and party list candidates.
Party
Leaders
Most party leaders continue to appear
safe until the election. The leader of the NZ First Party
is expected to be Winston Peters (92% probability), Peter Dunne is expected to lead
UnitedFuture (87% probability), Prime Minister John Key is expected to lead National
(86% probability), Russel Norman and Metiria Turei are expected to remain
Green Party co-leaders (82% and 81% probability
respectively), Hone Harawira is expected to remain
leader of the Mana Party (81% probability), and Opposition
Leader David Shearer is expected to remain
leader of the Labour Party (70% probability).
Both Maori
Party co-leaders, however, appear set to depart. There is
just a 45% probability Pita Sharples will be male co-leader on
nomination day and just a 27% probability Tariana Turia will be female co-leader.
There is a 57% probability Te Ururoa Flavell will be a Maori Party
co-leader on nomination day.
Act Party leader John Banks remains highly vulnerable,
with just a 24% probability he will be keep his job through
to nomination day.
Were there a change in National’s leadership,
Judith Collins continues to be favoured, while Grant
Robertson continues to be favoured should there be a leadership change in
Labour.
Electorate
Contests
Despite questions over its leadership,
the Maori Party continues to be expected to win
two electorates at the next election and the Mana Party one electorate. None of the
Green, NZ First, Conservative, UnitedFuture and Act parties is expected to win an
electorate seat.
Party
Vote
National’s forecast party vote has risen
back above 40% after dropping below that point for the first
time three weeks ago. The following party vote shares are
now expected at the next election: National 40.1% (up from 39.7% three
weeks ago), Labour 35.4% (steady), Greens 10.0% (down from 10.3%), NZ First 5.1% (steady), Conservatives 4.0% (steady), Act 1.5% (steady), the Maori Party 1.4% (steady), Mana 1.2% (steady), UnitedFuture 1.1% (steady) and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
(steady).
Seats in Parliament
Under
the electorate and party vote forecasts above, and assuming
a 5% threshold for seats, iPredict is forecasting the
following Parliament: National 51 seats (steady compared
with three weeks ago), Labour 45 seats (steady), Greens 13
seats (steady), NZ First 7 seats (steady), Maori Party 2
seats (steady) and Mana Party 2 seats (steady). Parliament
would consist of 120 MPs, requiring a group of parties to
have 61 seats to govern.
However, were the MMP threshold
reduced to 4%, Parliament would be as follows: National 50
seats (up from 49 three weeks ago), Labour 44 seats
(steady), Greens 12 seats (down from 13), NZ First 6 seats
(steady), Conservatives 5 seats (steady), the Maori Party 2
seats (steady) and Mana 1 seat (steady). This Parliament
would also consist of 120 MPs, requiring a group of parties
to have 61 seats to govern.
Formation of
Government
Under the 5% threshold scenario
above, no plausible National-led government would be
possible. A Labour/Green/NZ First government would have 65
seats and a Labour/Green/Maori/Mana government would have 62
seats.
Under the 4% threshold scenario above, however, a
National-led government would have 61 seats with the support
of the NZ First and Conservative parties. Including the
Maori Party would give the government the support of 63 MPs.
A Labour/Green/NZ First government would have 62 seats. A
Labour/Green/Maori Party/Mana combination would have only 59
seats and could not govern.
In most scenarios, therefore,
NZ First’s support continues to be critical and iPredict
traders believe there is a 66% probability that the NZ First Party will indeed hold the balance
of power, up from 65% three weeks ago. If it does so,
traders believe there is a 49% probability it will back a
National-led government (up from 48%), a 32% probability it
will back a Labour-led government (steady) and a 19% it will
choose to choose to sit on the cross-benches giving neither
a National-led nor Labour-led government support on
confidence and supply (down from 20%).
As at 9.15 am this
morning, there was a 50% probability of a National prime minister (up from 49% three weeks
ago) and a 50% probability of a Labour prime minister
(steady).
Miscellaneous
iPredict is
owned by Victoria University of Wellington and operates
under New Zealand law under the Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited)
Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008. iPredict traders
warrant and undertake that they are 18 years of age or older
and will comply will all laws in the jurisdictions in which
they are present.
END