Media release

6 June 2012

National’s party vote support among the total adult population has slipped a further 1.5% in the past month.

A HorizonPoll survey of 2,814 New Zealanders aged 18+, conducted between May 18 and June 6, 2012, finds National with 26.6% support among all people aged 18+. This is down from 28.1% in April-May and from 32.31% of all those aged 18+ at the November 2011 general election.

Labour, while up from the 18.77% at the 2011 election, remains at 23.2% in May-June, compared with 23.4% in April-May. Labour secured 25% of the 18+ population vote when it lost to National in the 2008 election. It is edging back toward its 2008 support level.

The Green Party has slipped back slightly in the past month, from 11% to 8.2%, but is still up on the 7.55% of the 18+ population who voted for it at the election.

New Zealand First continues to enjoy more support than it received at the 2011 election. It has 6.4% of all those aged 18+, compared with 5.4% a month ago and 4.5% at the 2011 election.

The Conservative Party has 3.3% support, Mana 1%, ACT 0.9% and the Maori Party 0.8%.

National has slipped 5.71% since the election. Labour is up 4.43%.

The results reflect the latest Colmar Brunton poll for TVNZ, which shows National has lost 4% of decided voters since the last election. (Horizon's results are for all people aged 18+ and include 20% who are undecided).

The latest slip shown in the HorizonPoll is mostly not related to the Budget. 85% of respondent interviews were completed before Budget day on May 24.

The survey is weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, employment status, region and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population aged 18+. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.8%.

More results for current party vote are available here.

The results of Horizon April-May polling are here.

Support as a percentage of total population 18+
2011 election April 24- May 6, 2012 May 18 – June 6, 2012
National 32.31 28.1 26.6
Labour 18.77 23.4 23.2
Green 7.55 11 8.2
NZ First 4.5 5.4 6.4

© Scoop Media