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Analysis of Political Polls + Election Ratings
ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POLITICAL POLLS + TELEVISION RATINGS FOR ELECTION PROGRAMMES
Tuesday 29th November, 2011
ONE News asked Colmar Brunton to crunch one more set of numbers around the election. We wanted to know how accurate the major political polls were in the lead up to the poll that really counts, Saturday’s General Election.
The final analysis showed the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll recorded the least amount of difference with the actual party vote across the parties that were returned to Parliament, compared to any of the other pollsters.
They stacked up
like this:
1. ONE News Colmar Brunton
2. NZ Herald
DigiPoll
3. Roy Morgan
4. 3 News Reid Research
5. Fairfax Media Research International
The detailed results are reported in the table below.
Kiwiblog’s David Farrar has done his own analysis with similar results, http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/how_the_pollsters_didhtml
Viewer analysis showed that over 2.2 million people tuned in to TV ONE’s coverage of the election and election results across the weekend, see further ratings below.
ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POLLS IN LEAD UP TO
GENERAL ELECTION
|
GENERAL ELECTION RESULT | ONE News Colmar Brunton | 3 News Reid Research | NZ Herald DigiPoll | Fairfax Media Research International | Roy Morgan | |
| 26 Nov | 19-23 Nov | 24 Nov* | 17-23 Nov | 17-21 Nov | 22-24 Nov | |
| National | 48.0% | 50.3% | 50.8% | 50.9% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| ACT | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| United Future | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Conservative | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | - | - |
| Labour | 27.1% | 27.9% | 26.0% | 28.0% | 26.0% | 23.5% |
| Green | 10.6% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 14.5% |
| Maori | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Mana | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| NZ First | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| Others | 0.7% | 0.6% | n/a | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% |
|
Difference between actual General Election Party Vote and that predicted by the pollsters for the parties combined in the table below. (%-points difference) | ||||||
| National + Labour | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | |
| National + Labour + Greens | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | |
| National + Labour + Greens + NZ First | 6.5% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | |
| National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori | 7.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 9.7% | |
| National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori + Other Parliamentary Parties | 8.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 10.7% | |
| Overall Poll Placing based on Least Difference to General Election Party Vote Result Across all Parliamentary Parties | 1st | 4th | 2nd | 5th | 3rd |
* Date poll was reported, not field dates
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