Media release

November 20, 2011

Key seen as stronger, Goff imparts more hope

There have been some significant changes during the election campaign in the way Labour Leader Phil Goff and National leader John Key are making people feel.

Emotion is believed to play an important role in driving voter choice.

Nov 2011
Goff
Key
Key relative to Goff

Angry
Goff 11.10%
Key 21.90%
Key relative to Goff 10.80%

Afraid
Goff 7.60%
Key 12.30%
Key relative to Goff 4.70%

Nervous
Goff 15%
Key 15.40%
Key relative to Goff 0.40%

Concerned
Goff 22.70%
Key 21.90%
Key relative to Goff -0.80%

Hopeful
Goff 26.60%
Key 17.70%
Key relative to Goff -8.90%

Proud
Goff 7%
Key12.20%
Key relative to Goff 5.20%

Excited
Goff 5.70%
Key 9.60%
Key relative to Goff 3.90%

Comfortable
Goff 15.90%
Key 24.30%
Key relative to Goff 8.40%

None of these
Goff 12.30%
Key 6.10%
Key relative to Goff -6.20%

Don't know the name
Goff 1%
Key 0.30%
Key relative to Goff -0.70%

Mr Key was this week making twice as many people feel angry than Mr Goff (21.9% to 11.1%), the HorizonPoll of 2,874 voting age New Zealanders finds.

He is also making more people afraid (12.3% to 7.6%), and slightly more people nervous (15.4% to15%).

Mr Key makes more people feel comfortable than Mr Goff (24.3% to 15.9%), excited (9.6% to 5.7%) and proud (12.2% to 7%).

Mr Goff now makes more people feel hopeful than Mr Key (26.6% to 17.7%), an 8.9% lead for the Labour leader.

Mr Key made people angrier during the week, the anger rating rising from 18.8% on Wednesday to 22.3% by Friday morning. His anger, concern and comfortable ratings are similar.

The ability to impart hope has seen a significant shift during the campaign and since Horizon measured the feelings adults have toward the leaders in November 2010.

While Mr Key comfortably beat Mr Goff in imparting hope in November a year ago, 25.2% to Mr Goff’s 17.8%, this has now switched to 26.4% for Mr Goff and 18.5% for Mr Key.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, enjoying rising poll support in the past week, now makes 21.6% of people feel hopeful, 8.5% proud, 8.2% excited and 13% comfortable. On the negative side, he makes 14.1% angry, 7.9% afraid, 14.3% nervous and 20.5% concerned.

Leaders’ qualities

HorizonPoll also measured people’s views on the qualities of parties’ leaders. Similar research has been conducted by the academic-led and independent United States Centre for Political Studies for several decades.

Mr Key is seen as more inspiring, knowledgeable and stronger than Mr Goff. He is 29.7% ahead of Mr Goff on strength (40.8% to 11.1%).

Mr Goff is seen as more moral, trustworthy and honest.

39.1% think Mr Key has none of the six qualities listed, 46.2% think Mr Goff has none of them.

Qualities
Key
Goff
Key relative to Goff

Inspiring
Key 17.40%
Goff 7.30%
Key relative to Goff 10.10%

Knowledgeable
Key 33.60%
Goff 26.90%
Key relative to Goff 6.70%

Moral
Key 15.70%
Goff 21.10%
Key relative to Goff -5.40%

Strong leader
Key 40.80%
Goff 11.10%
Key relative to Goff 29.70%

Trustworthy
Key 17.90%
Goff 21.40%
Key relative to Goff -3.50%

Honesty
Key 15.30%
Goff 18.20%
Key relative to Goff -2.90%

None of these
Key 39.20%
Goff 46.20%
Key relative to Goff -7.00%

Results are based on responses from 2,874 adult New Zealanders, in polling conducted between 9 am Wednesday and 5.39am Friday (November 16-18). Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, education qualification and party vote 2008, the poll has a maximum margin of error of ± 1.8%.

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