MEDIA RELEASE

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

8 September 2009

 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey shows potential signs of labour market recovery in New Zealand

According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today, New Zealand job seekers should see a moderately improved labour market in the final quarter of 2009, with a greater percentage of employers saying they will hold on to the staff they have, suggesting some stability in the next three months .

The survey of 720 New Zealand employers shows hiring intentions for the next three months remain in negative territory, with the Net Employment Outlook at -1%. However, the Outlook does indicate that employer confidence may be on the rise after two successive quarters of moderate improvement. This is due to a rise in the proportion of employers planning to increase hiring (14 percent, up from 12 percent in Q.3) and a fall in the number who plan to decrease hiring (13 percent, compared to 18 percent in Q.3). Hiring intentions are still weaker than a year ago, however, when the Net Employment Outlook, adjusted for seasonal variations, stood at +8%.

“While hiring plans remain sluggish, this is an encouraging sign that the New Zealand job market is stabilising. Businesses and employees have faced some tough times in the past year, but it appears that the employer forecasts are a bit more optimistic than they have been for some time now,” said Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director, Manpower Australia and New Zealand.

Certain industries are faring better than others: 18 percent of Manufacturing industry sector employers plan to increase hiring (up from 12 percent in Q.3) and while only 13 percent of Finance, Insurance & Retail sector employers are set to increase their hiring, just five percent plan a decrease.  Meanwhile, 24 percent of Transportation & Utilities sector employers intend to increase hiring in the fourth quarter (up from 20 percent in Q3), resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +7%, one of the strongest industry sector forecasts for the fourth quarter.

The job market’s recovery may not be evenly spread across the nation, however, with Christchurch facing a Net Employment Outlook of -10%, the least optimistic employer forecast since the New Zealand survey was launched in the second quarter of 2004, and the only region where employers are projecting a slower hiring pace than in the previous quarter.  Employers in Auckland (-2%) and Wellington, (-2%) on the other hand, are anticipating a moderately improved hiring climate in comparison to the third quarter.

Mr Chris Riley, General Manager, Sales & Marketing, Manpower New Zealand, said one of the defining characteristics of this downturn has been the way in which different sectors and regions have felt the pain. For example, in the first quarter of 2009, the Services sector saw the most positive Outlook (+14%), but is now one of the weakest at -4%. Yet Transportation & Utilities has been a bright spot, starting the year at +9%, and remaining positive throughout, now at +7.

“The message here for jobseekers is that it’s vital to stay flexible, retrain where possible and tap into networks for new opportunities. The economy hasn’t contracted evenly, nor will it grow again in a uniform way, so people need to be adaptable and go where the demand is.

“We have already seen in our research, and in talking to employers, that skills shortages still exist in some areas in New Zealand, including engineers, sales professionals and trades. And while the downturn has provided a welcome respite for many organisations who had struggled to find the talent they need, it certainly won’t last forever. Smart companies will be working hard, right now, to both attract and retain top performers who will see them through the downturn and beyond,” Mr Riley said.

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