Sunday 21st June 2009: Q+A’s panel this week – Paul Holmes, Therese Arseneau, former NZ First MP Ron Mark & former Prime Minister, Mike Moore.

The panel discussions have been transcribed below. The full length video interviews and panel discussions from this morning’s Q+A can be seen on tvnz.co.nz at, http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news

Points of interest:
- Moore on Fiji: “It represents a huge diplomatic failure by New Zealand and Australia”
- Mark on 3 Strikes: “ACT have been done… This law is a crock”

Panel Discussion With Paul Holmes, Therese Arseneau, Mike Moore & Ron Mark

Response to KIM WORKMAN & DAVID GARRETT interview

PAUL Good or bad law, the three strikes law.

RON Oh I think there's a bigger story here, ACT have been done, quite clearly the adjustments that Simon Power's made to the original ACT bill and created as a government bill, this five year benchmark that he's put in there will effectively mean that this law never actually sees any effect at all.

MIKE I think it's superficial show pony nonsense. I'd go for it if it worked, there are deeper issues at work. Looks it what people want to hear, playing on the grief. Nobody's batting for the other side on the law and order issue. It's a bit like anti smacking, the anti smacking law would never do what those who supported it said it would do, it would never do what those opposed to it .

PAUL But the Nats might feel obliged to support this because it is what you might call a red meat issue.

MIKE I think we ought to spend some time on Mental Health and our law and order problems, I just think we go for these wonderful superficial ...

RON I agree with that – if you want to talk about dealing with the Mental Health Act yeah we can have that debate, if you want to talk about what Kim wants to talk about all the time rehabilitation and what inmates are actually doing when they're incarcerated, let's have that debate, this debate is about whether this law, which is supposed to be a three strikes and you're out law, should pass or whether it will achieve what they said it would achieve. The benchmark has been set so high with the five years, who gets five years – take for example .

PAUL Nobody has been sentence for serious violent crimes for three five year sentences.

RON A driver hits a victim drags them for two kilometres down the road gets four years three months, doesn’t qualify as a first strike, a doctor sexually assaults two young girls gets two years, it's not a strike. This law is a crock, ACT have been done and the question for ACT is are they gonna vote for it.

PAUL Well that’s right, that’s right he doesn’t like the law as it is, the Nats have also added a few crimes, bestiality, incest, robber, acid throwing, aggravated burglary, kidnapping, underage sex crimes.

RON What about P dealing, P is the thing that is ripping our communities apart and you do not get a strike for being a P cook or a PAUL dealer. Absolutely ridiculous.

MIKE Well it's not gonna do what they say it's gonna do, it never was.

PAUL Will it pass?

RON Haven't a clue.

MIKE ACT should show some guts and vote against it.

RON Absolutely agree.

PAUL What would be coming up this week being in parliament. Parliament's in session again what news are you gonna be looking for keeping an eye on this week?

RON Oh it's interesting, there's a rather obscure bill going through that deals with funding from parliamentary services for political parties, land transfer amendments bills are gonna go through and of course the Asean Australia Free Trade area bill that’s going through.

MIKE Around some serious stuff goes on we'll be hearing about water coolers and what come up next week will be Sunday's lunch, and Iran.

PAUL There could be a bit more of that couldn’t there?

Response to STEPHEN SMITH interview

PAUL So what does our panel make of the some of the things the Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith was saying, Mike Moore and Ron Mark. You'd have to say politically he's a master at saying very little, is Mr Smith.

MIKE He did that very well.

PAUL He did that very well didn’t he?

MIKE Well look Australia is a serious country, here's a country when the Tsunami hit Indonesia put a billion dollars up, more than Japan, more than US, military expenditure now is equal to the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia put together. They believe they live in a dangerous neighbourhood, and we do, and here's the New Zealand interview and the New Zealand public saying why should you spend this money because deep down we think the Australians stand between us and any mischief, and why do we have these idealistic views on foreign policy, which are good and I have them, because deep down we think there's no cost to being wrong, and there is a cost to being wrong, and the question if of China.

PAUL Let's get on to China shortly. Let me ask you about the IMF, he indicated that Fiji, he understood that Fiji may already have applied to the IMF or institutional financial institutions for some assistance. Now here's what he said.

'Guyon Espiner: So is the economy close to tipping over is that what you're saying? Stephen Smith: Well I think it's in a very precarious situation, I think it's in a very precarious situation. Guyon: And they will need to call on the likes of the IMF etc is that what you're saying? Stephen: Well my understanding is that some of those discussions have already occurred, conversations between Fiji and the international financial institutions as they should.'

PAUL Now my understanding was really what Australia and New Zealand are doing is more or less bringing some economic pressure and other pressures on Fiji to bring the regime to its senses, to get the restoration of democracy. If Fiji go round the back of us to the IMF, if the IMF helped them out that rather defeats our purpose doesn’t it?

RON Funny that. I think New Zealand and Australia quite clearly recognise that the last thing they want to be doing is severely impacting upon the ordinary people of Fiji and it's a very difficult line to be walking when you're trying to get the regime to accept change and to adjust, but at the same time not wishing to severely harm the livelihoods of the ordinary Fijians.

PAUL Yeah but at the same time when you bring economic pressure, try and bring economic pressure to bring a regime to its senses, you are in fact trying to put economic pressure on the ordinary people aren’t you so they bring the pressure on the regime?

MIKE Is that possible though. It'll be the World Bank not the IMF. This represents a huge diplomatic failure by New Zealand and by Australia over several decades.

PAUL What does?

MIKE What's happened in Fiji. What is foreign policy about? Foreign policy is projecting and protecting your interests and promoting your values, and building up over many years those values and those interests. We have failed. Now having said that this is not going to be solved by beating our chest doing the Tarzan act and pretend – you know we criticise the Americans or the Aussies for being belligerent and then we beat our chest and lecture and poke our fingers in the face of military people who don’t particularly like that. This has to be worked through, you need a game changer, I know some people who are working on a game changer now, and this will not be resolved by hairy chested pp.

RON The other problem we have is that we've made a lot about using United Nations pressure by taking Fijian peacekeepers out of the UN forces, and we actually know that that’s not possible. One of the greatest difficulties the United Nations has is getting credible defence forces from credible countries that aren’t corrupt, that don’t go around raping the locals, that don’t become part of the warlord problem themselves, to actually accept some of these very dangerous missions around the world that they're responsible for. So it's one thing for New Zealand and Australia to be saying we want the United Nations to drop Fiji from its list of preferred countries.

MIKE Was there three or four thousand Fijians in the British Army and doing a damn good job, in security forces all round the world.

PAUL Just go back to something you were saying, you know some people working on a game changer?

MIKE Yeah there has to be a game changer there and to allow people to move, keep their dignity and keep their faith.

PAUL But who is working on a game changer?

MIKE Oh anyhow, this is a different coup than others, this is the first time they’ve had a go at the courts, the Council of Chiefs, and even got a military guy in the Central Bank. They are now putting military guys into all sorts of SOEs and sort of stuff, so it is very serious stuff, but here's New Zealand, we beat our chest about this coup but we're very silent about coups in Thailand and elsewhere and sometimes we act as though we're Texans of the specific and we pretend. A bit of dignity, self respect, and allowing people to move back to change the game a bit would be worthwhile.

PAUL Still, I mean they were talking, Guyon and Stephen Smith were speaking about whether the Fijian economy is in dire straits, whether it might be about to tip. If it tipped would that get rid of Bainimarama?

MIKE If the people were hurt enough and got up, but you know what happens if 50 Indian lawyers decide to march on the High Court copying what happened in India or Pakistan and then somebody starts beating the thing is explosive.

PAUL The military build up the hundred billion dollars military spend.

RON Over 20 years.

PAUL What do you make of it?

RON The biggest and I think Guyon said the biggest since World War II, excuse me the military build up in World War II happened over three years, not 20 years. There's a bit of hype there on that part, I think Australia recognises the problems it has in Indonesia, you know seconds offshore by jet aircraft, it sees issues there, it's been working for a decade now, more, with Indonesian military, with the Indonesian government to try and develop good relationships there, but Australia –New Zealand has the luxury of knowing that we have the great continent of Australia between us and other hotspots of Asia.

MIKE And we're becoming Canadians they're becoming Texans.

RON We can say what we like but Australia is dealing with what they see is their threat.

PAUL Australia's a little bit worried about China he said we've asked the Chinese to be open about the intentions of their big growing military power, are they right to worry about China?

MIKE Of course you should think about these things, but you shouldn’t demonise or idealise the problems faced, don’t forget it's only 40 years ago that more than a hundred thousand Chinese were slaughtered in Indonesia, maybe half a million, now China wants a blue navy capacity to protect its people in the region, this becomes very complex. You spend in Defence and you spend in diplomacy with the hope that you'll never have to use it. The key thing here is India, it would be a very dangerous thing to have China – I'm a China fan you know – China as the dominant economic power in our region, a successful India, a successful Japan, a successful China, a successful Russia, a successful confident America, this is the balance that is useful in our pond.

PAUL So we need some balancing in our region I guess, is what you're saying. Now he also spoke about an ANZAC ready reaction force.

'Stephen Smith: We certainly share this ambition, there's a great historic connection between Australia and New Zealand in military terms through our ANZACS. We have the closer defence relations and we work very closely, but we would frankly like to see some modern day expression of the ANZAC iconic symbol.'

Which might well be a very seamless and quickly deployed ready reaction force, would it be hard to achieve?

RON Well I think we already do that, we do it on a case by case as needed basis, and I mean we go back to 1982 the deployment into Sinai, the setting up of the Maori National Force and Observers, that was an ANZAC Rotary wing, Australians and New Zealanders in the same unit, bought their own helicopters and went in and did the job. Some are still there doing other work, but look at East Timor, that was really an ANZAC involvement there, and I guess the key, and this is where the White Paper will be very important, is ensuring that what we equip ourselves with and the way in which we structure our Defence Forces is compatible with – and helpful in the wider sense given what Australia has already ...

MIKE Of course we should do it, but we also ought to concede that while we'll nearly always have the same objectives, sometimes we can take different roads. For example I was able to launch the peace talks in Bougainville in PNG because I was a Kiwi, we give them 12 million a year, the Aussies give them 450 million a year and guess who they like. So there are ways in which we can do this if we're real smart, and stretch our dollar and stretch our diplomacy.

ENDS

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