PUBLICITY RELEASE

MONDAY NOVEMBER 3 2008

Hauraki Waikato Voters Support Mahuta In Maori Television Poll

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that incumbent Labour MP for the Hauraki Waikato seat, Nanaia Mahuta, gathers 56 per cent of Maori voters’ support – a 13 point lead over Angeline Greensill of the Maori Party (43 per cent). The difference in support between the two candidates is statistically significant and of note is that Mahuta’s lead is greater than the proportion of voters who have yet to form an opinion on who they would support (10 per cent).

The Labour candidate’s lead in the electorate vote is almost matched by Labour’s lead in the party vote: Labour (47 per cent) holds an 11 point lead over the Maori Party (36 per cent). National wins nine per cent of Maori votes while NZ First (four per cent) and the Greens (three per cent) attract similar levels of party vote. The level of indecision for the party vote is greater than for the electorate candidate. Eighteen percent of this electorate’s sample of 500 Maori voters are still undecided or would not vote.

Maori voters in the Hauraki Waikato electorate were also asked which party – National or Labour – they would prefer the Maori Party formed a majority government if this was required after the upcoming election. The clear majority (75 per cent) of this sample would prefer that the Maori Party went with Labour rather than National (17 per cent). The remainder said neither (three per cent) or did not know (five per cent).

The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in Hauraki Waikato was unveiled tonight (Monday November 3 at 8.00 PM) on weekly current affairs show NATIVE AFFAIRS. The final two episodes of Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – will screen on Tuesday November 4 and Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM.

Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the latest research polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered on the Hauraki Waikato Maori roll between October 21 to 29 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Helen Clark still remains the most preferred Prime Minister, at 39 per cent, which is very similar to the support she gained in Te Tai Tonga. Winston Peters is the next most preferred candidate for PM with 11 per cent support while Pita Sharples (eight per cent) is close behind. John Key (six per cent) and Tariana Turia (five per cent) gather minor levels of support to be Prime Minister. Again there is a relatively high proportion (24 per cent) of voters who have no opinion as to which politician would be the best Prime Minister.

The theme established in the other five Maori electorates continues in Hauraki Waikato, where the most pressing issues for Maori are: positive future for their children (91 per cent – very important); access to quality education for their children (90 per cent); a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out on the street (86 per cent); and access to affordable quality health services (84 per cent).

The Labour Party’s 47 per cent share of the party vote is mirrored in its levels of association as being the party that would be able to provide the best local health (47 per cent), housing (48 per cent), employment (47 per cent) and education (44 per cent) services. But again no party was seen as having all the solutions to ensure that voters and their families could feel safe in their homes and in their neighbourhoods. At most, 33 per cent thought Labour could attend to this issue but equivalent numbers thought that the Maori Party (20 per cent) or the National Party (21 per cent) would be better placed to ensure a better sense of safety within the home or community.

MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

Political Party

Party Vote %

Labour

47

Maori Party

36

National

9

NZ First

4

Green Party

3

Progressive

-

ACT

1

United Future

0.2

All others

0.2

Base (those with an opinion)

409

Don’t know/undecided

17

Would not vote

1

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – HAURAKI WAIKATO:

Hauraki Waikato Candidate

Candidate %

Nanaia Mahuta (Labour)

56

Angeline Greensill (Maori Party)

43

Other candidates

1

Base (those with an opinion)

447

None

1

Don’t know

9

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

Main candidates

Total %

Helen Clark

39

Winston Peters

11

Pita Sharples

8

John Key

6

Tariana Turia

5

Nanaia Mahuta

2

Others (less than 0.5%)

5

None

3

Don’t know

21

Base

500

IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN HAURAKI WAIKATO:

Issue

Very important %

Quite important %

Not that important %

Of no importance to me %

Don’t know not applicable %

Quality education for my children

90

7

2

0.2

1

Access to affordable quality health services

84

13

2

1

0.2

Fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims

66

22

9

2

2

Good jobs in my area

68

24

5

2

1

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

67

20

10

1

1

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

86

10

2

0.4

1

My children will have a positive future

91

6

1

1

1

Base: 500

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:

Issue

Labour Party

%

Maori Party

%

National Party

%

NZ First

%

Green Party

%

None

%

Don’t know

%

Your children receive quality education

44

26

11

2

1

3

13

You can access affordable quality health services

47

25

6

3

3

3

14

There is fair settlement of Treaty claims

27

60

2

1

1

2

7

There are good jobs in my area

47

18

11

1

2

3

18

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

48

22

6

2

3

5

15

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

33

20

21

4

2

5

16

Your children will have a positive future

40

28

8

2

4

4

13

Base: 500

WHICH HAURAKI WAIKATO CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:

Statements

Nanaia Mahuta (Labour)

%

Angeline Greensill (Maori Party)

%

None

%

Don’t Know

%

Can be trusted

56

43

4

13

Will deliver on promises

55

40

3

15

Knows the needs of the local people

65

43

1

9

Is experienced in politics

80

17

1

9

Is a capable leader

59

37

4

12

Would be good in a crisis

55

38

3

14

Has lots of personality

55

42

3

13

Base: 500

COALITION PARTIES FOR THE MAORI PARTY:

Preferred coalition partner with the Maori Party

Yes %

Labour

75

National

17

Neither

3

Don't Know

5

Base: 500

KOWHIRI ’08 is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panellists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. The final two episodes screen on Tuesday November 4 and Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.

ENDS

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