PUBLICITY RELEASE

MONDAY NOVEMBER 3 2008

Ikaroa Rawhiti Voters Split In Maori Television Poll

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television indicates that there is very little difference in the level of voters’ support between the two main candidates standing for the Maori seat of Ikaroa Rawhiti. In the most recent survey taken in the last week of October, incumbent MP Parekura Horomia gathered 50 per cent of the vote while the Maori Party candidate, Derek Fox, won 45 per cent support. This result is within the margin of error and is just less than the proportion of voters (seven per cent) who have yet to form an opinion.

In terms of the party vote, Labour’s lead is more certain. Just over a half (51 per cent) of decided voters claim they would support Labour, 18 points ahead of the Maori Party’s share of the party vote (33 per cent) and also greater than the proportion of non-committed voters (14 per cent). The other three main parties gained an equivalent level of support with NZ First and the Greens both getting five per cent of the vote and the National Party securing four per cent.

Maori voters in Ikaroa Rawhiti were also asked which party – National or Labour – they would prefer the Maori Party formed a majority government if this was required after the upcoming election. Most (82 per cent) of this sample would prefer that the Maori Party went with Labour rather than National (10 per cent). The remainder said neither (four per cent) or don’t know (four per cent).

The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in Ikaroa Rawhiti was unveiled tonight (Monday November 3 at 8.00 PM) on weekly current affairs show NATIVE AFFAIRS. The final two episodes of Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – will screen on Tuesday November 4 and Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM.

Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the latest research polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered on the Ikaroa Rawhiti Maori roll between October 23 and November 1 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Across the seven Maori seats surveyed, Helen Clark gained her highest level of support (42 per cent) as preferred prime minister in this East Coast electorate. Winston Peters (13 per cent), then the two co-leaders Pita Sharples (seven per cent) and Tariana Turia (seven per cent), follow in popularity. John Key does not have a lot of support in Ikaroa Rawhiti with only two per cent of voters supporting him to be PM.

This latest poll confirms that the most pressing issues for Maori throughout the country are to ensure: access to quality education for their children (94 per cent – very important); a positive future for their children (93 per cent); access to affordable quality health services (90 per cent); and a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out on the street (89 per cent).

The Labour Party performed particularly well in Ikaroa Rawhiti in terms of its association as being the party that would be able to provide the best local health (50 per cent), housing (51 per cent), employment (49 per cent) and education (47 per cent) services. Such results may have combined to help Labour be positioned as the party clearly most likely to provide a positive future for the voters’ children (46 per cent vs 27 per cent for the Maori Party). And, even on the more contentious issues of ensuring a sense of safety at home or on the street, Labour, on 39 per cent, won more support than the Maori Party (24 per cent) or the National Party (13 per cent).

MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

Political Party

Party Vote %

Labour

51

Maori Party

33

Green Party

5

NZ First

5

National

4

Progressive

-

ACT

0.2

United

-

Family Party

0.5

All others

1

Base (those with an opinion)

430

Don’t know/undecided

13

Would not vote

1

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – IKAROA RAWHITI:

Ikaroa-Rawhiti Candidate

Candidate %

Parekura Horomia (Labour Party)

50

Derek Fox (Maori Party)

45

Bevan Tipene-Matua (Greens)

5

Other candidates

1

Base (those with an opinion)

461

None

1

Don’t know

6

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

Main candidates

Total %

Helen Clark

42

Winston Peters

13

Tariana Turia

7

Pita Sharples

7

John Key

2

Jeanette Fitzsimmons

1

Others (less than 0.5%)

5

None

3

Don’t know

20

Base

500

IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN IKAROA RAWHITI:

Issue

Very important %

Quite important %

Not that important %

Of no importance to me %

Don’t know not applicable %

Quality education for my children

94

5

1

-

0.2

Access to affordable quality health services

90

9

1

0.2

-

Fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims

70

20

7

1

2

Good jobs in my area

79

16

4

1

0.2

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

72

20

6

1

1

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

89

10

1

0.6

0.2

My children will have a positive future

93

6

1

1

0.2

Base: 500

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:

Issue

Labour Party

%

Maori Party

%

National Party

%

NZ First

%

Green Party

%

None

%

Don’t know

%

Your children receive quality education

47

26

8

3

2

2

12

You can access affordable quality health services

50

27

5

2

4

3

10

There is fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims

30

58

2

2

1

2

5

There are good jobs in my area

49

21

7

3

1

4

16

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

51

23

3

2

2

3

15

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

39

24

13

4

2

5

14

Your children will have a positive future

46

27

6

4

6

2

8

Base: 500

WHICH IKAROA RAWHITI CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:

Statements

Parekura Horomia (Labour)

%

Derek Fox (Maori Party)

%

Bevan Tipene-Matua (Greens)%

None

%

D/K

%

Can be trusted

48

38

9

8

11

Will deliver on promises

44

42

9

6

12

Knows the needs of the local people

61

48

10

2

6

Is experienced in politics

73

31

3

1

6

Is a capable leader

48

47

5

5

9

Would be good in a crisis

45

44

6

3

13

Has lots of personality

52

47

5

3

8

Base: 500

COALITION PARTIES FOR THE MAORI PARTY:

Preferred coalition partner with the Maori Party

Yes %

Labour

82

National

10

Neither

4

Don't Know

4

Base: 500

KOWHIRI ’08 is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panellists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. The final two episodes screen on Tuesday November 4 and Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.

ENDS

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