OCTOBER 22 2008

Te Tai Hauauru Voters Support Turia In Maori Television Poll

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia commands the bulk of the support in Te Tai Hauauru. Almost eight out of 10 (79 per cent) of Maori voters surveyed in this electorate support Turia as their local MP while the only other main candidate, Errol Mason (Labour), gathers 19 per cent of the electorate vote.

At the party vote level, however, the Labour Party (47 per cent) holds a strong lead over the Maori Party (33 per cent). This result contrasts with Maori Television’s previous two polls in the electorates of Tamaki Makaurau and Waiariki where support for Labour and the Maori Party was much more evenly split. Back in Te Tai Hauauru, National wins just 10 per cent of Maori votes while NZ First (five per cent) and the Greens (four per cent) attract similar levels of party vote.

Less than a fifth (18 per cent) of this electorate’s sample of 500 Maori voters are still undecided or would not vote. But amongst the youngest voters, aged between 18-24 years, 31 per cent have yet to make up their mind as to which party they would support.

The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in Te Tai Hauauru was unveiled tonight (Wednesday October 22) on KOWHIRI ’08 – a series of political programmes screening on Maori Television every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5. The next political poll will focus on the Maori electorate of Te Tai Tokerau (Tuesday October 28) followed by Te Tai Tonga (Wednesday October 29); Hauraki Waikato (Tuesday November 4); and Ikaroa Rawhiti (Wednesday November 5).

Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the research in Te Tai Hauauru polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered on Te Tai Hauauru Maori roll between October 9 to 17 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent. More than a third (35 per cent) of this sample prefers Helen Clark to be their Prime Minister. Support for Clark is strong amongst the young voters (18-24 years, 42 per cent). There is also above average support for Clark as PM in the over-55 age group (46 per cent).

Tariana Turia is the next most preferred option for Prime Minister (11 per cent) with Winston Peters (nine per cent) and Pita Sharples (eight per cent) following close behind. Only six per cent of this Maori electorate would choose John Key to be Prime Minister. Again, there is a relatively high proportion (22 per cent) of voters who have no opinion as to which politician would be the best Prime Minister.

Similar to the other two electorates, the following four issues are rated as the most pressing for Maori in Te Tai Hauauru: access to quality education for their children (90 per cent – very important); a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out on the street (89 per cent); positive future for their children (88 per cent); and access to affordable quality health services (82 per cent). Of secondary importance are the issues of: good jobs in my area (70 per cent – very important); fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims (66 per cent); and access to affordable quality housing in my area (64 per cent).

The Labour Party’s relatively strong party vote is supported by a fairly widespread belief amongst the local sample that Labour will, more than any other party, provide good jobs locally (46 per cent) and deliver quality health (45 per cent), housing (42 per cent) and education (42 per cent). Also of note is that these Te Tai Hauauru voters were also more likely to view the Labour Party (40 per cent) than the Maori Party (29 per cent) as being able to do the best job of ensuring a positive future for their children.

MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

Political Party

Party Vote %

Labour

47

Maori Party

33

National

10

NZ First

5

Green Party

4

Progressive

-

ACT

0.2

United Future

-

Alliance

-

All others

0.2

Base (those with an opinion)

412

Don’t know/undecided

17

Would not vote

1

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – TE TAI HAUAURU:

Te Tai Hauauru Candidate

Candidate %

Tariana Turia (Maori Party)

79

Errol Mason (Labour Party)

19

Other

2

Base (those with an opinion)

458

None

2

Don’t know

6

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

Main candidates

Total %

Helen Clark

35

Tariana Turia

11

Winston Peters

9

Pita Sharples

8

John Key

6

Tim Barnett

2

Jeanette Fitzsimmons

1

Others (less than 0.5%)

6

None

3

Don’t know

19

Base

500

IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN TE TAI HAUAURU:

Issue

Very important %

Quite important %

Not that important %

Of no importance to me %

Don’t know not applicable %

Quality education for my children

90

6

1.2

0.8

1.6

Access to affordable quality health services

82

16

1.4

0.4

0.4

Fair settlement of treaty claims

66

22

8

2.4

1.4

Good jobs in my area

70

23

5

0.8

0.8

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

64

25

8

1.4

1.8

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

89

9

1.2

0.6

0.4

My children will have a positive future

88

9

1

0.8

1.2

Base: 500

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:

Issue

Labour Party

%

Maori Party

%

National Party

%

NZ First

%

Green Party

%

None

%

Don’t know

%

Your children receive quality education

42

28

11

1

3

3

13

You can access affordable quality health services

45

27

7

1

3

2

15

There is fair settlement of treaty claims

24

59

3

0.6

1

3

10

There are good jobs in my area

46

18

12

2

1

4

18

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

42

26

7

1

2

5

17

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

32

23

15

4

2

7

16

Your children will have a positive future

40

29

8

2

7

3

11

Base: 500

WHICH TE TAI HAUAURU CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:

Statements

Tariana Turia (Maori Party)

%

Errol Mason (Labour)

%

None

%

Don’t know

%

Can be trusted

69

14

6

15

Will deliver on promises

67

17

4

16

Knows the needs of the local people

74

14

3

15

Is experienced in politics

76

13

2

12

Is a capable leader

74

13

4

13

Would be good in a crisis

68

17

4

16

Has lots of personality

73

12

4

16

Base: 500

Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panellists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. It screens every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5 with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.

ENDS

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