Police Terror Raids
Opinions of Evidence Release by Media

Omnibus Results
[Late November 2007]

UMR RESEARCH
Email: umr@umr.co.nz
www.umr.co.nz

Methodology

Results in this report are based upon questions asked in the UMR Research nation-wide omnibus survey. This is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over.

Fieldwork was conducted from the 22nd to 28th November 2007 at UMR Research’s national interview facility in Auckland.

The margin of error for sample size of 750 for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is ± 3.6%.

Summary of Findings

- Overview

• Most New Zealanders (57%) support the media’s release of evidence that Police had gathered under the Suppression of Terrorism Act to support the arrests of political activists even though the Courts had prohibited any release.

• Even though prohibited evidence has been released by some media organisations almost two-thirds (64%) think those arrested can get a fair trial.

• Most New Zealanders (59%) closely followed the news stories about the Police raids last month (October) and the events following such as the hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Terrorism Suppression Act.

- Evidence released by media

• 57% supported the media’s release of evidence that Police had gathered under the Suppression of Terrorism Act to support the arrests of political activists even though the Courts had prohibited any release and 31% were opposed.

• Most (73%) of those who think those arrested can get a fair trial support the release of the evidence, though 19% opposed the release.

• Also, a majority (62%) who do not think those arrested can get a fair trial opposed the release of the evidence while 31% supported the release.

• Among Maori (n=82), more people supported the release of the evidence (46%) than opposed its release (38%).

- Fair Trial

• Almost two-thirds (64%) think those arrested can get a fair trial despite the release of the evidence.

• Even though a slight majority of Maori (53%) think those arrested can get a fair trial, their confidence is significantly below that of all non-Maori (n=668) with 66% thinking they can get a fair trial

• Wellingtonians (n=77) are less confident about the ability to get a fair trial with 49% saying they can compared to 64% for all New Zealanders.

• Men (68%) are also more likely than women to say they can get a fair trial.

• Of those who support the release of the evidence, 82% think they can get a fair trial compared to 13% who say they can’t.

• Of those who oppose the release of the evidence, 40% think they can get a fair trial compared to 50% who say they can’t.

- News story following

• Most New Zealanders (59%) closely followed the news stories about the Police raids in October and the events that followed.

• Interest in the news stories was stronger among older people with 62% over 60 years saying they followed them closely compared to 45% of those under 30 years.

Evidence released by media

Most (57%) support the release by some media organisations evidence Police had gathered under the Terrorism Act to support the arrests of political activists even though the Courts had prohibited its release.

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SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE MEDIA RELEASING POLICE EVIDENCE
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As you may be aware, some media organisations published evidence the Police had gathered under the Terrorism Act to support the arrests of political activists last month, even though the Courts had prohibited its release. Some have said it was in the public interest for those media organisations to release the evidence, but others have said the Courts' orders should have been followed and that release of the information may jeopardise a fair trial for those arrested. Do you support or oppose the release of the evidence?

Lt NOV 07
%
Support 57
Oppose 31
Unsure 12
TOTAL 100

Base: All, n=750

Nearly two thirds (64%) think that those arrested can get a fair trial.

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POSSIBILITY OF FAIR TRIAL
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Now that some of the evidence has been released, do you think that those whom have been arrested can get a fair trial?

Lt NOV 07
%
Yes 64
No 25
Unsure 11
TOTAL 100

Base: All, n=750

- News story following

A majority of people (59%) closely followed the news stories about the Police raids last month (October) and the events following such as the hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Terrorism Suppression Act.

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MEDIA FOLLOWING
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Using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means very closely and 5 means not closely at all, please tell me how closely you are following or have followed these news stories in the last month. If you do not know enough about it just say so

The police raids last month and the events following such as the Hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Suppression of Terrorism Act

Lt NOV07
%
1 – Very closely 36
2 23
TOTAL FOLLOWED CLOSELY (1+2) 59
3 21
4 10
5 – Not closely at all 7
TOTAL NOT FOLLOWED CLOSELY (4+5) 17
Unsure/ Do not know enough 3

Note: This question was added into the survey on 23rd November. The sample size is n=694

Although 59% had closely followed the news stories about the Police raids last month (October) and the events following such as the hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Suppression of Terrorism Act, other news stories such as the decision from the Christchurch High Court to grant David Bain bail (73%) and Sue Bradford's bill regarding violence towards children (67%) were followed more closely earlier this year.

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TOP NEWS STORIES FOR 2007
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Using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means very closely and 5 means not closely at all, please tell me how closely you are following or have followed these news stories in the last month. If you do not know enough about it just say so

TOTAL FOLLOWED CLOSELY (1+2)
%
The three year old Rotorua girl being admitted to Starship Children's Hospital following months of abuse from family members (AUG 07) 75
The decision from the Christchurch High Court to grant David Bain bail (Lt MAY 07) 73
The bill regarding smacking and violence towards children (Lt MAR 07) 72
The death of an Auckland woman, after a Mercury Energy contractor disconnected the power because of an unpaid bill (JUN 07) 72
The death of three year old Nia Glassie following months of abuse from family members (Md AUG 07) 72
Suspended Assistant Police Commissioner Clint Rickards acquitted of kidnapping and indecent assault charges (MAR 07) 70
Team New Zealand winning the Louis Vuitton Cup and the right to challenge for the America's Cup in Valencia (JUN 07) 69
The amendment to the anti-smacking bill (MAY 07) 68
The weather bomb that hit the upper North Island (Lt JUL 07) 68
Sue Bradford's bill regarding violence towards children (APR 07) & (Lt Apr 07) 67
Last weekend's gang-related shooting of a two year old girl in Wanganui (MAY 07) 65
The hunt for a Chinese New Zealander who fled to the United States after his daughter was found abandoned at a Melbourne train station and his wife was found dead (Lt SEP 07) 64
…
The police raids last month and the events following such as the hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Suppression of Terrorism Act (Lt NOV 07)* 59

Base: All, n=750
*Note: This question was added into the survey on 23rd November. The sample size is n=694

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As you may be aware, some media organisations published evidence the Police had gathered under the Terrorism Act to support the arrests of political activists last month, even though the Courts had prohibited its release. Some have said it was in the public interest for those media organisation to release the evidence, but others have said the Courts' orders should have been followed and that release of the information may jeopardise a fair trial for those arrested. Do you support or oppose the release of the evidence?

.......... Base...Support... Oppose... Unsure

ALL..........750.... 57%.... 31%.... 12%

AREA
Auckland........ 242.... 54%.... 37%.... 9%
Provincial....... 354.... 58%.... 30%.... 12%
Christchurch....... 77.... 64%.... 27%.... 9%
Wellington........77.... 57%.... 24%.... 19%

RURAL......... 135.... 61%.... 30%.... 9%

SEX
Male......... 359.... 58%.... 33%.... 9%
Female.........391.... 57%.... 29%.... 14%

AGE GROUP
Under 30........ 157.... 58%.... 25%.... 17%
30-44......... 225.... 50%.... 39%.... 11%
45-59......... 196.... 61%.... 30%.... 9%
60 Plus........ 172.... 63%.... 26%.... 11%

OCCUPATION
Professionals,...... 182.... 52%.... 37%.... 11%
Managers
Technicians,....... 97.... 62%.... 26%.... 12%
Associate
Professionals
Clerks......... 66.... 63%.... 29%.... 8%
Sales and service..... 36.... 45%.... 48%.... 7%
workers
Blue collar....... 121.... 58%.... 33%.... 9%
Students........ 41.... 42%.... 29%.... 29%
Retired........ 123.... 64%.... 25%.... 11%
Homemaker........ 47.... 63%.... 24%.... 13%
Not employed....... 23.... 48%.... 34%.... 18%
Self employed.......15.... 78%.... 14%.... 8%

PERSONAL INCOME
Less than $15,000..... 113.... 50%.... 33%.... 17%
$15,001-25,000...... 103.... 58%.... 29%.... 13%
$25,001-30,000...... 56.... 71%.... 15%.... 14%
$30,001-40,000...... 86.... 59%.... 32%.... 9%
$40,001-50,000...... 101.... 56%.... 29%.... 15%
$50,001-70,000...... 119.... 54%.... 38%.... 8%
More than $70,000..... 98.... 55%.... 38%.... 7%

ETHNICITY
Pacific Island...... 35.... 37%.... 41%.... 22%
Maori......... 82.... 46%.... 38%.... 16%
Non-Maori........668.... 59%.... 30%.... 11%

THINK FAIR TRIAL POSSIBLE
Yes..........483.... 73%.... 19%.... 8%
No.......... 187.... 31%.... 62%.... 7%

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Now that some of the evidence has been released, do you think that those whom have been arrested can get a fair trial?

.......... Base.... Yes.... No... Unsure

ALL..........750.... 64%.... 25%.... 11%

AREA
Auckland........ 242.... 67%.... 23%.... 10%
Provincial....... 354.... 66%.... 26%.... 8%
Christchurch....... 77.... 64%.... 16%.... 20%
Wellington........77.... 49%.... 34%.... 17%

RURAL......... 135.... 67%.... 25%.... 8%

SEX
Male......... 359.... 68%.... 24%.... 8%
Female.........391.... 61%.... 26%.... 13%

AGE GROUP
Under 30........ 157.... 61%.... 25%.... 14%
30-44......... 225.... 57%.... 33%.... 10%
45-59......... 196.... 68%.... 23%.... 9%
60 Plus........ 172.... 72%.... 17%.... 11%

OCCUPATION
Professionals,...... 182.... 57%.... 35%.... 8%
Managers
Technicians,....... 97.... 60%.... 22%.... 18%
Associate
Professionals
Clerks......... 66.... 70%.... 25%.... 5%
Sales and service..... 36.... 55%.... 35%.... 10%
workers
Blue collar....... 121.... 69%.... 26%.... 5%
Students........ 41.... 63%.... 21%.... 16%
Retired........ 123.... 72%.... 17%.... 11%
Homemaker........ 47.... 62%.... 18%.... 20%
Not employed....... 23.... 73%.... 9%.... 18%
Self employed.......15.... 84%.... 16%.... 0%

PERSONAL INCOME
Less than $15,000..... 113.... 61%.... 24%.... 15%
$15,001-25,000...... 103.... 67%.... 21%.... 12%
$25,001-30,000...... 56.... 70%.... 27%.... 3%
$30,001-40,000...... 86.... 64%.... 23%.... 13%
$40,001-50,000...... 101.... 59%.... 30%.... 11%
$50,001-70,000...... 119.... 63%.... 31%.... 6%
More than $70,000..... 98.... 65%.... 24%.... 11%

ETHNICITY
Pacific Island...... 35.... 55%.... 23%.... 22%
Maori......... 82.... 53%.... 39%.... 8%
Non-Maori........668.... 66%.... 23%.... 11%

SUPPORT RELEASE OF EVIDENCE
Support release......431.... 82%.... 13%.... 5%
Oppose release...... 232.... 40%.... 50%.... 10%

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Using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means very closely and 5 means not closely at all, please tell me how closely you are following or have followed these news stories in the last month. If you do not know enough about it just say so

The police raids last month and the events following such as the Hikoi to Parliament and the Solicitor-General's decision not to prosecute under the Suppression of Terrorism Act

...........................5 Not. Do not
............1 Very........... closely at.. know
.........Base. closely... 2... 3... 4.. all. enough. Unsure

ALL........ 694...36%.. 23%.. 21%.. 10%...7%...3%...0%

AREA
Auckland...... 236...36%.. 18%.. 22%.. 12%...9%...3%...0%
Provincial......304...35%.. 26%.. 23%...8%...6%...2%...0%
Christchurch..... 77...28%.. 26%.. 20%.. 11%...7%...7%...1%
Wellington...... 77...44%.. 24%.. 16%.. 12%...4%...0%...0%

RURAL....... 118...42%.. 19%.. 22%.. 11%...4%...2%...0%

SEX
Male........336...39%.. 23%.. 21%...8%...6%...3%...0%
Female....... 358...32%.. 23%.. 22%.. 12%...8%...3%...0%

AGE GROUP
Under 30...... 153...27%.. 18%.. 24%.. 13%.. 13%...5%...0%
30-44....... 214...33%.. 28%.. 19%.. 12%...6%...2%...0%
45-59....... 175...40%.. 23%.. 24%...7%...5%...1%...0%
60 Plus.......151...42%.. 20%.. 20%...8%...5%...4%...1%

OCCUPATION
Professionals,.... 175...36%.. 27%.. 24%...8%...4%...1%...0%
Managers
Technicians,..... 91...35%.. 22%.. 19%.. 12%.. 11%...1%...0%
Associate
Professionals
Clerks....... 65...27%.. 28%.. 15%.. 18%...6%...6%...0%
Sales and service....32...40%.. 25%.. 17%.. 13%...5%...0%...0%
workers
Blue collar..... 110...37%.. 21%.. 25%...7%...6%...4%...0%
Students.......39...19%.. 22%.. 22%.. 16%.. 18%...3%...0%
Retired.......110...40%.. 20%.. 23%...7%...6%...3%...1%
Homemaker...... 42...34%.. 22%.. 21%.. 12%...6%...5%...0%
Not employed..... 20...58%...6%.. 12%...5%.. 19%...0%...0%
Self employed..... 10...47%.. 17%...8%.. 16%...0%.. 12%...0%

PERSONAL INCOME
Less than $15,000... 102...28%.. 19%.. 29%.. 12%...7%...4%...1%
$15,001-25,000.....92...38%.. 19%.. 14%.. 14%.. 13%...2%...0%
$25,001-30,000.....51...35%.. 26%.. 20%.. 10%...7%...2%...0%
$30,001-40,000.....82...30%.. 25%.. 27%...7%.. 10%...1%...0%
$40,001-50,000.....92...30%.. 33%.. 22%...8%...4%...3%...0%
$50,001-70,000.... 113...38%.. 25%.. 23%...6%...5%...2%...1%
More than $70,000....94...47%.. 21%.. 13%.. 16%...3%...0%...0%

ETHNICITY
Pacific Island.....35...20%.. 19%.. 13%.. 24%.. 24%...0%...0%
Maori........75...47%.. 14%.. 17%...8%.. 11%...3%...0%
Non-Maori...... 619...34%.. 24%.. 22%.. 10%...7%...3%...0%

ENDS

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