MEDIA RELEASE
July 9, 2007

EMBARGOED TO 10 JULY 2007

Climate change refugees may flock to New Zealand

Climate change may see people fleeing inclement places in the rest of the world to what they perceive as a haven in New Zealand.

That is one of the many messages about the risks and opportunities of climate change to be aired at a seminar at Te Papa National Museum today (Tues 10 July) organised by the New Zealand Society for Risk Management.

The seminar’s speakers will discuss how organisations can prepare for a warmer New Zealand but one with more weather extremes. They will describe measures already taken to adapt to extremes they have experienced, such as snowstorms and flooding, and how they have introduced energy-saving procedures that have saved thousands of dollars and hundreds of tonnes of CO2.

Johannah Branson of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), in a wide-ranging presentation, summarises the risks and economic impacts of climate change on population, tourism, agriculture, industry, transport, water and energy infrastructure.

One of these is the possibility of large scale immigration. New Zealand could see refugees of a different ilk – those fleeing unbearable climates.

“Environmental refugees could come, for example, from the Asia-Pacific region which is likely to experience rising sea levels,” Dr Branson says.

But what will they find when they get here?

“Climate change in New Zealand is likely to mean an increased opportunity for outdoor recreation with longer summers and milder winters,” Dr Branson says.

“This is also likely to change domestic migration patterns as people choose where to work and retire. There is also likely to be a reduction in cold weather-related morbidity and mortality.”

Sounds great, but everyone will need to develop excellent food-handling skills as a warmer climate will come with a greater risk of bacterial infection and more pests like flies. They will also be more exposed to injuries and loss of services caused by serious floods and storms and to heat stress and respiratory distress.

The refugees are likely to see more people out bicycling and walking as they cut back on long distance travel in hot stuffy vehicles. The vehicles that are on the road are likely to be energy efficient - powered by electrics or biofuels.

In mitigating the risks and adapting to the changes, Dr Branson says that assessing potential economic impacts can help organisations decide which risks to worry about most, what their best options are, and focus their research where it will best aid those decisions.

ENDS

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