Marc My Words… 12 February 2007
Political comment
By
Marc Alexander
Welcome to Deadwood…

The birth of a new political year always brings as much apprehension as anticipation. And just as in the real world, almost always with a string attached. Whatever respite the Labour ministers have enjoyed over the break, they return this week to the start of a challenging year. A number of issues currently plague Helen Clark's government. While Healthcare, Education and violent crime are major issues - largely insoluble given that all available and obvious remedies contradict Labour ideology, other more practical difficulties abound.

Most significantly is the new political landscape that awaits Clark and co. For a start the small party vote has collapsed to a greater degree than usual. A recent poll condemned New Zealand First, Act, and United into the never-never land where even the national grid would fail to resuscitate. And while the Maori Party also dipped, their strength lies in the safety of the Maori seats and the fact that their only obstacle in regaining their seats (and even increasing them by perhaps one or two) is the Labour party. Given that voters at the next election are likely to be less than enthusiastic about giving Labour yet another go, Turia and Sharples are likely to benefit. And to be fair, apart from a couple of dumb pronouncements (koha anyone?), they've acquitted themselves well.

As for the Greens, their vote has predictably increased as the result of the high priority given climate change and sustainability issues within the media. A less obvious additional effect has been their co-leader Russell Norman who's proved that not all their adherents are completely mad. They've cleverly kept their nuttier proposals away from the media and it's helped. Besides, the Greens have always been a repository for a number of protest votes against Labour in the absence of an alternative 'left/extreme-left' political vehicle to support.

But the real difference this year will be that while Labour struggles to find fresh initiatives to fire up the imaginations and support of the public, Clark's opponent for the top job, John Key, has already undermined her sense of invincibility by setting the agenda in her own turf - the underclass. And as if to prove the point that the Prime Minister has lost touch with what has always been viewed as a core Labour constituency, Clark herself helped National's cause by being so off-hand, dismissive and cavalier.

Its one thing to be shot by your opponent, but something else again to be handed a gun and do it yourself. John Key probably can't believe his luck. Helen Clark has kept the underclass close to her bossom, nourishing them with the milk of welfare long after it's ceased to be of benefit. In a two-man horserace you'd have to say that Key was leading at the turn by at least a couple of lengths.

Key's ability to move to the political centre by moving the political centre in a conservative direction will be all important if National is to translate the rising polls into a government. That John Key has shot up to 24 per cent - a mere 10 points behind the Prime Minister in personal support, says a great deal about his empathy with the voters. A fact borne out by the result of another poll which showed that 42% believed Helen Clark was out of touch with Mr. and Mrs. Kiwi while only 22% felt that way about the National Leader.

What the last few weeks have highlighted is the flat-footedness of the stale Labour front bench. Michael Cullen appears tired and spent. With an ego the size of the outback, he has already fumbled with a flip-flop on his fixed rate mortgage levy initiative. It came and went within morning tea as an idea which apparently passes for thinking these days by this self-styled economic impresario. But it will nevertheless cast a shadow of doubt on anyone gifted by a modicum of political and economic literacy. No-one wants to hear that their mortgage might shoot up 2% just so Cullen can dampen inflation in the short-term. Stupid.

The above underscores the real problems for Labour which lies within. Most have been there awhile and are past it. Three elections and how many new faces are there? After eight years they're the ones who created the problems they now face. The public knows that and confidence is waning. Steve Maharey, Trevor Mallard and David Benson-Pope are hardly exhilarating. They are the Huey, Dewey and Lewey of the Labour caucus who, like guests who have overstayed their welcome, deserve to be shown the door.

Looking further into the talent pool, it's hard to escape the conclusion that it more closely resembles a talent puddle. Take Dianne Yates. Preferably far away. Or what about Russell Fairbrother? Jill Pettis? Mita Ririnui? Ann Hartley? Oh and lets not forget token Muslim Ashraf Choudhary - and if you can't place him, well, he's the one who got a safe list placing for abstaining on the conscience issues of prostitution, civil unions etc.

And who do they have in the wings? How about another couple of Unionists to add to their collection such as Helen Kelly and Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union secretary Andrew Little?

The push for a purge also comes not only because of a need for new talent, but also, from Helen Clark's point of view, to bring in a throng of newbie's who will pledge their loyalty to her. After eight years those waiting to take over are becoming increasingly impatient. Mallard and Maharey have both eyes on Clark's job. So too does Phil Goff for whom it's either now or never. This year we can expect to see the internal fissures within Labour becoming glaringly obvious instead of simmering away quietly below the media plimsoll line as it has during the last two or three years. Still…nothing brings cohesion like a common enemy. The first is what to do with the Taito Phillip Field saga which blights them all. The second is playing the political game on the back foot by a nemesis that looks increasingly like a government in waiting. For Labour that will be key.

ENDS

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