What would NZ do if Cyclone Winston had blown through Tuvalu or Kiribati, instead of Fiji?

While exploring climate change effects on Tuvalu and Kiribati earlier this year, I was asked what New Zealand would do if Cyclone Winston had blown through Tuvalu or Kiribati, instead of Fiji?

My gut response, was of course New Zealand would step and help. After all, New Zealand is a Pacific nation, and were part of the Pacific extended family. And besides, it’s the right thing to do.

However, unlike Fiji’s mountainous land mass, Tuvalu and Kiribati are low lying atolls, no more than 2 metres above sea levels. So what would we do if a similar cyclone did strike Tuvalu or Kiribati? How would we cope with such an emergency?

The 12,000 people on Tuvalu would be permanently displaced from their island homes.

Do we have a plan for such an emergency? Are we prepared to take climate change refugees? Can we cope with a sudden influx of new migrants? Will our social and economic infrastructure cope? What would be the cost of implementing such a plan, and who would fund it?

At the conclusion of my visit, I became convinced that there is a real need to develop a regional Pacific plan that will help the most vulnerable island nations adapt to the destructive and unrelenting forces of climate change.

More specifically, “migration with dignity” should be an integral part of an adaption plan for those communities most likely to be displaced from their homes, as a consequence of rising sea levels and other climatic conditions making those home islands unviable and uninhabitable. Migration should be accepted as part of any adaptation plans by the Pacific. This plan should be developed now, not later, when it will be too late.

Signs of internal migration are already evident on Tuvalu and Kiribati as people from the outer islands flee their homes to find refuge on the main islands. These main islands – Funafuti in Tuvalu and Tarawa in the Kiribati – are already under extreme stress. Tuvalu’s population on Funafuti has increased from 2000 to 6000 in the last decade, the result of population growth many from outer islands. Squatter villages already exist on South Tarawa as 10 of Kiribati’s 33 islands are no longer livable.

In May, University of Queensland researchers revealed that at least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades, or are currently experiencing severe erosion. Tokelau is another island under threat from rising sea levels.

While Pacific people fight for their survival and demand their right to live on their heritage homes, the reality is they are dependent on industrial nations significantly reducing their carbon emissions - to below 2% of pre-industrial emissions. Industrial and developed nations which contribute the most of our carbon emissions only provide voluntary pledges for reducing their carbon greenhouse emissions under the Paris Agreement. We won’t know the impact of these pledges for some time to come.

In the meantime, the sea levels continue to rise. Climatic conditions are becoming prolonged and extended with hotter, wetter, and dryer seasons. Extreme events are becoming more regular and more destructive.

While Pacific Island nations adapt and live their lives as best they can under these unpredictable circumstances, the fact still remains, there needs to be a regional plan - resourced from the international climate fund - developed now, not after it turns into an emergency situation. Someone has to step forward and say, in the unlikely event of your home island being destroyed and your people being displaced by climate change, you are most welcome to migrate to our home country and live with us. Let’s plan for this emergency now.

Would New Zealand have the courage to take that first step and offer its assistance now? Are we prepared to take the lead in developing an emergency plan in consultation with our regional partners? These are questions that require courage, leadership and vision. I hope New Zealand has the courage and vision to step up.

VIDEO LINK: Su'a William Sio visits Kiribati to learn Climate Change

VIDEO LINK: Su'a William Sio visits Tuvalu to learn Climate Change

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