Drop in Murder Rate Statistics Questionable
David Garrett MP, ACT New Zealand
Wednesday, April 8 2009

ACT New Zealand Law & Order Spokesman David Garrett today questioned claims that murder rates have almost halved over the past 20 years given that homicide rates in New Zealand per 100,000 of population per annum increased from about 0.5 per 100,000 in 1970 to over two per 100,000 now.

"While observing that the reported drop in our murder rate is contrary to public perception, Victoria University Institute of Criminology Director Dr Michael Rowe and Police Statistics Manager Gavin Knight made a number of perceptive points together demonstrating how such a claim could itself be misleading and possibly incorrect," Mr Garrett said.

"Murder is just one subset of culpable homicide which also includes manslaughter and infanticide. All murders were culpable homicides, but not all culpable homicides are murders. This is not mere semantics - it would be possible for murder rates to have fallen while culpable homicides increased by an equal or even greater extent.

"The difference between manslaughter and murder is a question of intent. Whether an accused is found guilty of murder or manslaughter could at times be attributed to the quality of the lawyer involved.

"More sinister developments in recent years may also have led to, what lawyers call, ‘perverse verdicts’: verdicts of manslaughter when the evidence clearly established murder.

"Another factor often overlooked is advances in medical technology. A grievous injury suffered in a serious assault with intent may today be survivable, whereas the same injury suffered even 10 years ago would have been fatal.

"Mr Knight also cautioned that comparisons with past rates of any crime - including murder - were problematic because definitions may have changed over time. For example conspiracy to murder and attempting to murder had all been included in the offence type 'murder' since 1994. It is uncertain how such offences had been treated in the past," Mr Garrett said.

ENDS

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