RICHARD PREBBLE'S Letter from Wellington
Monday, 13 May 2002
Budget Spend-Up
A rural commodity boom for the past three years has given the Labour government strong tax revenue. Dr Cullen is now
following an old PR formula - lower expectations with talk of a boring Budget, while spraying the electorate with money.
Double the effect by announcing the spending twice.
So each day, sometimes twice a day, we have Ministers announcing extra spending. In the case of health, some
announcements will be made three times, and then made to seem more by announcing the extra spending over four years.
Why do they do it? Because bribing voters with their own money is a vote-winner.
Health
Labour's number one election promise was to lower hospital waiting lists. This has been the coalition's most spectacular
failure. The number of people waiting for operations is at an all-time record high, yet Health Minister Annette King has
told Parliament that hospital waiting lists are down. How can she do this? By cheating.
Now, you have to wait to get on a hospital waiting list. The waiting list just to see a specialist can be over six
months. These numbers are not recorded. Then, to get on a waiting list, a patient must be awarded a certain number of
points. If the waiting list is too long, the number of points needed is simply increased. Patients thrown off the
waiting list are referred back to their GP.
Hospital managers say they regularly see people with conditions such as untreated hernias, complaining because of the
delay, and they know the patient will die before getting an operation.
It's impossible to find out the number of New Zealanders who need an operation, who are on the "referred" list. It's the
best-kept secret of politics because no hospital keeps such a list.
Most people in this position are uncomplaining Labour voters who will read again that the government has increased the
health budget. In fact, in real terms, health spending is down. All health boards have received instructions to end
deficit spending. For some boards - such as Auckland and Hawke's Bay - this means savage cuts. But this won't be
apparent until next year.
The answer to exploding health costs is to use more of the private sector's resources and put more emphasis on
prevention - more personal responsibility.
Why Mallard Can't Settle
The teachers' strike is starting to hurt students' performance. It's also starting to hurt the government. Trevor
Mallard would love to settle but he can't because of a silly election promise - pay parity (paying primary teachers the
same as secondary). Secondary school teaching, with its discipline problems, is far more challenging than primary. How
many five-year-olds are suspended? We are short of qualified science and maths teachers. But we can't pay them more
because any pay rise to the PPTA flows on to primary teachers.
More Industrial Action
Major nurses' awards come up for re-negotiation over the winter. Health boards have told the Letter that under their
budget restraints, they can't even offer nurses the rate of inflation. Strikes seem inevitable - another reason an early
election must seem attractive to Labour.
Snap Election on Hold
There will be no election until the police investigation into Helen Clark's art fraud is completed. It wouldn't look
good to have the PM in court during an election campaign.
It is not easy for the police. The facts, which Clark has admitted, are an open and shut case of producing a false
document for pecuniary gain - even if it was for charity.
It is not for the police to judge, but the court. Even a conviction and discharge has an unfortunate side effect - any
MP convicted of an indictable (serious) offence is automatically out of Parliament. So the stakes are high. Of course,
if charged, Helen Clark could plead not guilty and ask for a jury trial. No jury with Labour voters on it, knowing the
penalty, would convict her.
So there is hope for the PM. Crown Law may form the view that because no jury would convict, that is grounds not to
prosecute. But a jury of 12 ACT voters would say seven years' jail is not enough!
A Warning to Willie
In the interests of public safety, here is a health warning to Willie Jackson, the MP who is telling the media he wants
to box Bill English. St Pat's Silverstream, Bill's old school, has a boxing tradition. Bill won his weight division
every year at school and is, we are told, a good boxer.
MPs who have played with him in the "world champion" New Zealand Parliamentary rugby team say Bill is tough. They
predict he would knock out Willie.
A Straw in the Wind
ACT's new book, 'Old Values, New Ideas', is in its second edition after only a month in the book shops. We note that
'Helen', which was for sale at $45 at Christmas, is now discounted to $19 in the bookshops.
The Ten Dollar Bank
The Letter notes a continual stream of uplifting press statements from Jim Anderton about how well our taxpayer-funded
$84 million Kiwibank is doing. We hate to rain on Jim's parade, but Kiwibank has only 60 percent of the customers its
business plan predicted. More worrying is that the average Kiwibank branch is doing only 20 over-the-counter
transactions a day - compared with the predicted 100.
Franchisees' only income is a fee per transaction. So a franchisee is expected to train staff and lose a third of their
retail space, for just $10 a day in transaction commissions. The taxpayers' $84 million investment is not looking good.
ARA - Runaway Trains
The ARA is raiding Infrastructure Auckland's $800 million for its rail project. (Why is there no subsidy for ferries?)
The Letter understands that Stagecoach is prepared to offer an alternative service for free, and Tranz Rail could also
offer a cheaper option. A report leaked to the Letter says ARA-owned and operated trains will cost each ratepayer $500 a
year.
Ends