French Election Cliffhanger: Le Pen Na Na Na…

By Gregor Thompson

The first of two rounds of the French presidential election took place this past Sunday. The second round, a run-off between the victor, Emmanuel Macron (27.84%) and runner-up, Marine Le Pen (23.15%) will take place on Sunday the 24th. This gives both candidates – who also competed against one another in 2017 – exactly two weeks to prove their mettle.

In 2017, Macron ran on a platform of economic and labour reform and disposed of Le Pen without trouble. Winning the second 66% to 34% against a candidate who was, at the time, considered to be done for. Latest polls - see… Ifop / Politico Poll of polls - show a 5-point difference with Le Pen in a stronger position than ever.

Le Pen has led a grassroots campaign visiting butchers, bakers, and primary schools all over France. And in doing so, has managed to somehow position herself as a compassionate champion of the French working class, a demographic that is increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living.

All this while Macron has been almost entirely absent from the campaign trail – focusing on matters in Ukraine. Critics of Macron suggest his absence reveals his character, they say he is an arrogant “president of the rich” who is too good for his electors.

To add to this, far-right cable news political pundit-cum-presidential candidate Eric Zemmour’s campaign has had the effect of making Le Pen look relatively moderate. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Le Pen and Zemmour were neck-and-neck. Zemmour’s comments on refusing Ukrainian refugees, rightly perceived as inhumane by the French public, put an end to that. Le Pen condemned the war, stayed quiet and soared in the polls.

As well as differentiating herself from Zemmour, Le Pen has adopted many of the left-wing’s economic policies. Her program includes lowering the retirement age to 60 (a policy pursued by the unofficial leader of the left Jean-Luc Mélenchon), raising teachers wages by 15% and recruiting 10,000 hospital workers – a remarkable deviation from her father’s ardent support of free market capitalism. Indeed, In 2022, it is hard to get her to talk about immigration at all.

From a distance, one might look at the French election and assume the country is overwhelmingly conservative. It’s more complicated than that. If you combine all of the first-round left-wing votes (Mélenchon, Jadot, Roussel, Hidalgo, Poutou and Arthaud), you get about 33% of the electorate. Combine this with Le Pen’s timely transformation and there has been a sizable move in the direction of the left.

Over the next two weeks, Macron will likely bring up Le Pen’s record on immigration, discrimination and the “great replacement”; the historic concerns of her party. If Le Pen has her way, expect her to attack Macron on purchasing power and jobs. Quite the change from five years ago.

Despite all her posturing though, Le Pen remains a far-right candidate, if not economically, then socially. Her manifesto includes a pledge to ban headscarves in public places and to end the automatic right to citizenship for those who are born in France and abolish all wind turbines. On top of this, her efforts to prioritise French workers will cause fury in Brussels and her idea to leave NATO (another policy borrowed from the far-left) demonstrates a fierce inward inclination.

In his concession speech, Jean-Luc Mélenchon called Le Pen’s bluff. Maintaining that she is not who she is pretending to be, and she is not a friend of the working class. In a de facto endorsement of Macron for the second round, he repeated “Not one vote for Le Pen,'' several times.

Many will follow Mélenchon's advice by voting for Macron or simply not voting at all - a surprisingly high amount are expected to abstain or “vote blanc,” i.e. cast a ballot but not select a candidate. “Vote Blanc” is a polled form of active protest voting and in the 2nd round of the 2017 election between the same two candidates 6.35% of ballots cast were vote blanc. Despite this, Le Pen’s economic and international policies are anticipated to persuade around 30% of Mélenchon voters to fall behind her.

Whether or not Le Pen’s image recalibration is genuine or a facade to appeal to the people Macron’s behaviour offends, the election is still the incumbents to lose. But one far closer than anyone might have expected.

In Macron’s first and only presidential rally at La Défense Arena, he acknowledged this, “look what has happened, Brexit” he shouted. “Things that we thought were improbable, do happen.”

Talking to LCI journalists, Macron admitted he needs to adapt his strategy, “It is clear I need to use new methods,” he said.

Two days after the election, Macron headed north to Normandy to catch up on campaigning. The day after, he will head to Alsace to do the same.

1. How vote is projected to move from the unsuccessful candidates to the final two, based on polling data.

2. How voters migrated between 2017 and 2022 in the first tour, presumably based on exit polling data.

France: Melenchon voters are key in the runoff - last time they gave Macron the benefit of the doubt, now they deeply dislike him, even think he is as toxic as Le Pen (for different reasons) / and wow 1/3 of Pecresse voters back Le Pen, another third abstain, via @FT pic.twitter.com/8PFIUhsKVz

— Anne-Sylvaine Chassany (@ChassNews) April 12, 2022

2017 vs 2022: Melenchon lost a bunch to Le Pen but gained from Socialists and abstentionists; Fillonistas are all over the place - completely lost; and Macron lost a bunch to Le Pen, that must hurt. https://t.co/ZSrqvWIyPj

— Anne-Sylvaine Chassany (@ChassNews) April 12, 2022

ENDS

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