Coup-Installed Military Junta Confidently in Control

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Thailand's fearful and punished political opposition is no immediate threat to the military's coup-installed regime which is using arrests, re-education camps, censorship and the creation of a new, restrictive constitution to enforce peace in the streets and extend its control.

Smoldering under the surface here in the so-called "Land of Smiles" is a mere handful of outspoken students, academics and politicians. But an increasingly critical local media, Thai and foreign analysts, diplomats and others warn that this Buddhist-majority country remains dangerously polarized. The appearance of stability and various claims that the junta is popular are trumpeted as proof that Thailand is once again an investment-rich environment for U.S. and other international corporations.

The response has been mixed.

Some multinational companies are still doing business, making fresh investments and voicing optimistic predictions despite Thailand's flattened economy.

Others are eyeing less risk and increased profits elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

In May 2014, then-Army Chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha led the coup against a popular elected government and became prime minister. Mr. Prayuth says he continues to use absolute powers under his interim constitution's Section 44 and other edicts to prevent a return to pre-putsch days when competing political groups fought deadly battles in Bangkok's grimy streets.

Confidently in control, Mr. Prayuth on September 12 declared civilian dissidents would no longer be forced to stand trial in Bangkok's Military Court, and could instead have their hearings in civilian courts which was the norm before the coup. "Over the past two years, peace and order have gradually been restored with people cooperating well, to bring the country forward for sustainable development, reform and fair reconciliation," the junta's order said on September 12.

"It is therefore appropriate to further relax measures, so all sides can perform their duties.”

The new order applies only to future trials, starting on September 12, and includes charges such as illegal assembly, political meetings, failure to submit to the junta's summons, possession of weapons, and a few other specific crimes.

Existing cases however would continue in the Military Court. Today, capitalist Thailand bustles with normal activity amid a peaceful ambiance of relative order controlled by the U.S.-trained military.

Thailand is a non-NATO U.S. treaty ally.

"Prayuth the prime minister is seen to be straight, honest and sincere," said Kasit Piromya, a member of the junta-created National Reform Steering Assembly.

"He works within a very small circle of friends and acquaintances. He has not shown much intellectual capacity and vision [but] it is quite easy to run a country with military hardware and draconian laws," Mr. Kasit, 72, said in an interview.

"There are some sporadic groups of students and lecturers opposing the military and some of their activities or policy measures. There has not been any big or widespread support for such fringe groups," said Mr. Kasit who was a foreign minister in an earlier military-friendly government.

Mr. Prayuth recently orchestrated the draft of a new constitution -- Thailand's 20th charter -- to create a "reformed" political system. The draft constitution allows the junta to handpick a 250-member Senate, including six seats for the head of the army, navy, air force and national police, plus the military's supreme commander and defense permanent secretary.

"Capable people will be chosen as senators," Mr. Prayuth said. A recent editorial cartoon in the staunchly royalist, English language Bangkok Post however showed Frankenstein's monster dressed in an army uniform labeled "The Senate" while being brought to life with electrodes in his brain.

A draft constitution writer tells a worried, innocent-faced Thai child: "Here is your guardian angel!!!”

The future Parliament will also have an elected 500-seat House of Representatives after national polls, promised for 2017. But the draft constitution also ensures that the next government's policies can be blocked, weakened or suspended by the National Anti-Corruption Commission, the Auditor-General's Office, the Election Commission, the Constitutional Court and other institutions. The junta says these controls will prevent corrupt politicians from destroying Thailand.

One of Thailand's few active opposition groups is the youthful New Democracy Movement (NDM), rebranded from a previous Thai Student Center for Democracy.

But after staging small sensational protests, they suffered Military Court trials or "attitude adjustment sessions" under military confinement -- alongside hundreds of dissidents from other groups -- which left the NDM frustrated and cynical.

"The public have a problem understanding politics because conservatives have given false ideas about democracy to the public for a very long time, to make Thai people think the authoritarian regime is democratic," said NDM member Than Rittiphan, 24, in an interview. "Obedience becomes fundamental in their mentality," Mr. Than said. By controlling the media, the regime has often been able to shape the message, others said.

"The anti-junta opposition lacks freedom of expression to communicate to the people at large," said Phongthep Thepkanjana who was deputy prime minister in the government which the coup toppled in 2014.

"They are not a threat to the junta's current policies. And they know so well that now it is not the time for them to make any serious move," Mr. Phongthep, 60, said in an interview.

"Thailand is passing [through] a crucial time, during which some influential groups may consider military rule is preferred to democratic government," said Mr. Phongthep who was also a former minister of justice, education and energy.

For many Thais, the new normal of strict law and order is comforting -- at least for now.

"Democracy is slow and painful, so slow that sometimes we're seduced by the brief orgasm of dictatorial muscle," wrote Kong Rithdee, a respected columnist often critical of the regime. The junta's "strict control and monitoring has created a climate of fear," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, political science faculty dean at Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand's less prosperous Isaan region.

"This makes the opposition feel extremely intimidated," Mr. Titipol, 43, said in an interview.

"The accepting of the military role as a correcting mechanism for democratic failure is another contributing factor towards the persisting popularity of the junta," Mr. Titipol said.

Opposition forces are also burdened with other problems.

"There are many weaknesses in the anti-junta movement. It is still led by a handful of people, mostly intellectuals, thus the movement is top-down and lacks a grassroots element," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Southeast Asian Studies Center associate professor at Kyoto University in Japan.

"Their agenda is issue-oriented, without a grand plan to overcome the military government," Mr. Pavin said in an interview.

"Their strength would be how they continue to raise several issues pertaining to the violation of human rights under the hands of the junta -- through available platforms including social media, alternative media and international audiences," he said.

Mr. Pavin left Thailand 13 years ago. Soon after the 2014 coup, the junta twice summoned him to return because he spoke out on various issues.

He "rejected the summons, because I denied the legitimacy of the coup." So the junta issued an arrest warrant and revoked his passport. He has since applied for refugee status in Japan.

The coup ousted a besieged and stumbling elected civilian government which had been under former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who acted mostly as a cipher for her authoritarian older brother, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr. Thaksin lost power in a 2006 military coup and fled abroad dodging a two-year prison sentence for corruption during his five year administration, which also faced allegations of human rights violations.

Today, both siblings are trying to rouse their Red Shirt and other supporters, but the regime and justice system have crippled both of them through trials and restrictions.

Mr. Thaksin refuses to return to Thailand but travels relatively freely, including trips to the U.S., Hong Kong, the Middle East and Africa.

Ms. Yingluck faces serious allegations of financial "negligence" linked to her administration's massive subsidies for rice farmers. Many politicians who support them meanwhile are cowed by threats of imprisonment or a loss of their financial assets if they appear too critical of the junta.

Adding to their woes, the next election's candidates will probably not include Ms. Yingluck or Mr. Thaksin, or several of their allies. "They will be blocked from politics [because of] the regulation for candidates that restricts...persons who have a criminal record to be in politics," said the New Democracy Movement's Mr. Than.

"This process clearly wants to make sure that possible potential threats to Prayuth's powers in the future will be eliminated out of politics, such as former Prime Minister Yingluck and a lot of her party members who face a charge for corruption," Mr. Than said.

***

Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based journalist from San Francisco, California, reporting news from Asia since 1978. He graduated from Columbia University's Journalism School and also received Columbia University's Foreign Correspondent's Award. He is a co-author of three non-fiction books about Thailand, including "'Hello My Big Big Honey!' Love Letters to Bangkok Bar Girls and Their Revealing Interviews," "60 Stories of Royal Lineage," and "Chronicle of Thailand: Headline News Since 1946." Mr. Ehrlich also contributed to the chapter about "Ceremonies and Regalia" in a book published in English and Thai titled, "King Bhumibol Adulyadej, A Life's Work: Thailand's Monarchy in Perspective." Mr. Ehrlich's newest Virtual Reality novel titled, "Sheila Carfenders, Doctor Mask & President Akimbo," is an immersive three-dimensional, one-hour experience with Oculus technology.

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