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National Well Ahead On Early Results
With advance votes counted and early booths coming in
National appears to be in the box seat to form the next
Government.
With 29 percent of the vote counted, National had 48.8 percent of the vote, Labour 23.7 percent and the Greens 9.9 percent
In 2011 49.7 percent of advance votes were for National ahead of its final result of 47.3 percent.
Labour had 26.2 percent of the advance votes in 2011 and ended on 27.4 percent with the Greens 9.9 percent in advance and 11 percent of the final.
After early voting NZ First were on 8.9 percent, in 2011 NZ First had 6.9 percent of the advance vote and ended on 6.59 percent
Though National lost some support as more
votes were counted in 2011 on the current results in 2014 it
looks to be well placed to form the next Government. On
current projections National would have 62 seats in 121 seat
Parliament. With it support parties in the last Parliament
ACT, United Future and the Maori Party on track to retain
seats John Key might not even need NZ First.
Unless there is a big swing to the left over the evening it does not seem possible to form a Government even with NZ First backing them.
The other factor is whether Colin Craig’s Conservative Party gets above the 5 percent mark with early voting putting them on 4.35 percent.
It is pretty clear the push for advance voting has had little overall effect in lifting the votes of the parties such as Labour and Internet Mana who pushed the option hard.
National looks set for a
third term retaining remarkably high levels of popular
support
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