India’s Elections: Beyond the Promise of Narendra Modi
by Owen Alterman, Hriday Sarma
INSS Insight No. 551, May 19, 2014
With the recent end of the long-running 2014 parliamentary elections in India, the winds of change may hit the Asian
giant’s relationship with Israel. For the first time in a decade, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is
returning to power, having scored a decisive victory in the preliminary voting tally. The BJP’s charismatic leader,
Narendra Modi, is a strong supporter of Israel, and his personality and presence might transform Indian-Israeli
relations. The open question is whether Modi’s personal inclinations can overcome the limits of India’s geopolitics.
Modi’s rise has been spectacular, and to a certain extent, controversial. In 2002, Hindus killed between 900 and 2,000
Muslims during riots in the state of Gujarat where Modi served as chief minister. Many left wing politicians and some
parts of the public pointed a finger at Modi for what they viewed as his administration’s insufficient response. In
2005, the United States even revoked Modi’s visa because of his connection with the riots. For years, Modi was persona
non grata in many Indian circles and in many Western countries. Then, in 2010, an Indian Supreme Court-appointed Special
Investigation Team largely exonerated Modi for involvement in the riots. Yet even during the years of controversy, Modi
was able to emerge as the chief architect of his state by boosting the GDP of Gujarat over the years; Gujarat’s compound
annual rate of GDP growth was 13.4 percent under Modi, far outpacing that of India overall at 7.8 percent during the
same period. Furthermore, Modi has continued to strive to make Gujarat a “global business hub,” with considerable
success. A key ingredient in the success story was a policy of encouraging foreign direct investment in Gujarat,
including a great deal from Israel.
Contacts with Israel have been particularly important for Modi. In recent years, Modi has visited Israel, staying with
the head of the India-Israel chamber of commerce and meeting with Israeli businessmen and entrepreneurs. Gujarat has
continued to be the world’s leading center for diamond-cutting, positioning it at an important point in the supply chain
of a signature Israeli industry. Modi sought to expand the relationship beyond diamonds and to forge ties with Israel's
state of the art h-tech sector in the fields of micro- and drip irrigation, biotechnology, and others. Israel’s ports
company is also a key player in a consortium building a deep-water port in Gujarat. Modi has likewise shown interest in
pushing forward the Indian-Israeli free trade agreement currently under consideration.
For the Indian public, though, Modi’s most important achievement was in raising living standards in Gujarat at a time
when the overall Indian economy stuttered. That, coupled with perceived lackluster leadership in the rival Indian
National Congress-ruled states in the country such as New Delhi and Assam, made Modi well-positioned for India’s recent
parliamentary elections. The last of India’s voters went to the polls on May 12, 2014, and preliminary results were
released on May 16. The results made it official: Modi and the BJP will form the new national government.
The victory by Modi presents opportunities but also challenges for Israel. On the one hand, Modi’s strength of
personality and charisma positions him as a potential opinion leader for hundreds of millions in India’s rising middle
class. That rising middle class is a key part of the rising middle classes of Asia that will become the pillar of global
economic and political power in coming decades. In a best-case scenario, Modi could not only be an Asian Stephen Harper,
and like the Canadian Prime Minister, an outspoken friend of Israel on the international stage; he could expand the
Indian-Israeli relationship with immediate economic and political benefits for Israel and prime Indian public opinion to
be well-disposed toward Israel into the longer term.
At the same time, that rosy scenario will likely need to come to terms with geopolitical realities. To the Indian
establishment, Iran is a strategic partner that churns out oil that India needs and sits astride Afghanistan, Pakistan,
and Central Asia, traditional invasion routes into the subcontinent. The Gulf states are home to millions of Indian
workers whose remittances power the economy in the state of Kerala and elsewhere. The politics of the United Nations
also limit the benefits of diplomatic support for Israel, with Arab and Muslim states controlling dozens of votes and
Israel commanding only one. Unlike Stephen Harper’s Canada, India is a developing country in a difficult security
neighborhood. Narendra Modi may not have the freedom to pursue a full-fledged pro-Israel agenda.
Within these limits, though, Indian policy could shift somewhat. During the term of the last BJP prime minister, Atal
Bihari Vajpayee, the tune from New Delhi changed for the better. Modi could reignite that spark and even go a bit
further, given his personal investment in this relationship. For Israeli policymakers, the clear recommendation is to
seek out Modi, welcome his election, and engage him in efforts to find ways to deepen and expand ties with this
important rising power.
The less obvious but equally important recommendation is to maintain support for Israel across the Indian political
spectrum. On balance, the BJP has traditionally been more supportive of Israel, but in recent decades most Congress
politicians have also shown goodwill. Just as bipartisan support has shielded the US-Israel relationship from the
increasing partisanship of Washington, so too continued outreach to all major players in Indian politics could build an
important foundation for a relationship that could prove ever more important--and hopefully, ever closer-- in the
decades to come. The rise of Narendra Modi is Israel’s opportunity. Balancing that with a relationship with the wider
Indian political spectrum is Israel’s challenge.
ENDS