Blue Wave Rises, iPredict Spot On
Wellington – With nearly 100 percent of the vote counted National has brought in around 48 percent of the party vote in
line with iPredict predictions for the past year.
This compares to the plus 50 percent traditional polls have been picking throughout the campaign.
Labour has had its caucus decimated with just 27 percent of the party vote and an estimated 34 MPs, very much close to
where iPredict traders have placed it.
Labour Leader Phil Goff said ``We have been bloodied’’ and conceded to National Leader John Key that he could not form
the next government.
Key has a more difficult Government to stitch together with ACT in ruins after a disastrous campaign and just clinging
on to Epsom, ACT Leader Don Brash immediately announced he would be standing down.
United Future also just brings back one MP and the Maori Party has three MPs.
But in the end Key can put a Government together with the same parties he has worked with for the last three years,
though they have been badly reduced in numbers.
National Party support went from 45 percent in 2008 to 48 percent in 2011 and it shows how MMP continues to create
interesting electoral outcomes despite near majority support for one party.
MMP also looks to be the electoral system for the imaginable future after advance votes in the referendum gave it a
clear lead.
The other big winners on the night were New Zealand First which has picked up an estimated 6.8 percent and 8 MPs and the
Greens with 10.6 percent and 13 MPs.
The numbers could still change around the margin and bring in or out MPs around the fringes, but the reality for Labour
is that it has continued to fail to pull any support outside of its hardcore bases bleeding party votes across the
country.
As forecast on iPredict Nikki Kaye held Auckland Central, Jonathan Young held New Plymouth, Paula Bennett held Waitakere
and Clayton Cosgrove lost Waimakariri.
In the seats that were too close to call, Labour took back the West Coast.
In one amazing result Christchurch Central was a dead heat on election night.