Grim statistics and worrying predictions 100 days on

Media release – June 2, 2011

Reality of grim statistics and worrying predictions taking toll 100 days on

- By Kip Brook, Word of Mouth Media NZ

And so it is, after 100 days, the grim statistics and warnings of possible more big ones to come keep mounting for hundreds of thousands of February 22 Christchurch earthquake victims.

First and foremost fact remains the awful 181 death toll. But other depressing news unfolds each week: more than 10,000 homes to be demolished; more than 900 buildings in the CBD to be knocked down; the Cathedral – the icon of the city – is more seriously damaged than first thought; the Arts Centre – the heart and soul of a creative city - may take 15 years to be fully restored; and more than a year to club to ground zero the iconic tilting Grand Chancellor Hotel building.

Physical scars of the battered city are plain to see while mental anguish have soared following predictions from GNS Science that Christchurch has a 23 percent chance of another 6.0 to 7.0 earthquake in the next 12 months. GeoNet is predicting between up to 10 solid shakes to 4.9 to June 18 one: people here are bracing for more after-shocks....and another big one.

The face of Christchurch has already changed forever. We here have all changed; some with emotional scars; but most feel privileged to be alive. We can’t see inside our central city. Our office blocks, cafes, restaurants, bars, hotels and city shops are cordoned off. From the barriers, it looks a terrible brooding mess in there.

We want to have one final look; but we can’t. Most of inner Christchurch will be knocked down. Many buildings have already vanished. The city centre in and around red zones is like a ghost town with rubble strewn across the streets. We’ll soon forget what our city once looked like and where buildings had stood for more than 100 years.

The central mall and The Strip along the Avon River will be the first retail and hospitality will reopen just before Cup Week, eight months after the big shake.

``There are some parts of Christchurch that can't be rebuilt on,’’ prime minister, John Key, said in February. The liquefaction damage from the earthquake is so great and the land damage is so substantial many areas of Christchurch will never be rebuilt on again.

Authorities said more than 70,000 people left the city in the wake of the quake. It’s just hard to know how many have returned. It feels a different city; with different dynamics.

The majority of streets in the city were blistered, twisted and pot-holed by the quake. They have repaired two or three times but the ground is still moving and driving around is worse than in any city in the western world.

It has been estimated the total cost of the rebuild could be as high as $30 billion, making it by far New Zealand's costliest natural disaster and the third-costliest earthquake worldwide.

But EQC and insurance money would be wasted on rebuilding Christchurch now without the new GNS Science forecast of another potential earthquake scenario in mind. There is no point in patching up buildings which in all likelihood will not survive another one. This is going to look a broken city for some time.

Canterbury Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend says: "It feels like we've been living through this forever’’. Many people are still traumatised by February 22 and a mental health earthquake response team has been set up to meet the demand.

A Canterbury-based international yoga expert, Donna Farhi, run a two-day yoga symposium by Canterbury University on August 24 and 25 to help Christchurch residents suffering post traumatic stress disorders.

Christchurch will rise again – just not yet.

ENDS

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