Wikileak: A/S Fort's October 9-10 2008 Visit To New Zealand
08WELLINGTON356
Date: 10/24/2008
175015,10/24/2008 1:
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EAP/ANP AND INR/FO E.O. 12958:
DECL:
10/23/2018
TAGS: PINR, PREL, NZ
SUBJECT: A/S FORT'S OCTOBER 9-10 VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND
Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Margaret B. McKean; Reason 1.4 (b), ( c), (d)
1. (C) Summary. During an October 9-10 visit to New Zealand, INR A/S Randall Fort met with members of the External
Assessments Bureau (EAB), the Chief Executive of the Prime Minister and Cabinet's Department, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth, and officials with New Zealand's Government Communications Security
Bureau (GCSB). GNZ officials praised USG efforts to improve intelligence sharing, particularly with respect to imagery.
GNZ interlocutors acknowledged that New Zealand gains enormous benefits from being part of the Five Eyes intelligence
community. A/S Fort's message focused on the increasing sophistication of commercial search engines and the growing
number of open source analyses available to policymakers. In the future, the intelligence community must find ways to
differentiate their products and provide value added to policy makers, argued A/S Fort. He also discussed the issues
surrounding cyberspace and national security. Key issues for GNZ officials centered on the recent Georgia/Russia
conflict, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan/Afghanistan, North Korea and the Pacific region. End Summary. Security of Public Sector
Computers is Key Concern
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2. (C) INR Assistant Secretary Fort visited New Zealand on October 910, accompanied by other INR staff. Meetings with
GNZ officials included calls on Gregory Baughen, head of New Zealand's External Assessments Bureau (EAB), working
sessions with EAB officials, a meeting with Bruce Miller, Deputy Director of New Zealand's GCSB, and a a call on Michael
McBurney, Deputy Director of New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS). Discussions with EAB working level staff
and analysts from other government offices focused on the recent Russia/Georgia conflict, North Korea and northeast
Asia, China, Iran/Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Pacific region.
3. (S/NF) During his visit, Fort called on Chief Executive of the Department for Cabinet and Prime Minister's Office,
Maarten Wevers, who manages a staff of 120, including Domestic and External Security groups, the PM's policy group, and
Wevers also oversees New Zealand's intelligence committee. Wevers likened his Department to the National Security
Council in terms of breadth of coverage and responsibilities. He noted that EAB's operations are highly
compartmentalized and EAB reports are tightly held within Cabinet, with few Ministers seeing them. He explained that New
Zealand's contribution to the Five Eyes intelligence community consists of two monitoring stations; one in the northern
end of the south island, and the other on the north island near Wellington. Wevers offered that the GNZ recognizes that
it is a ""enormous beneficiary"" of the Five Eyes community and lauded the good bilateral relations on intelligence
sharing, including recent strides in imagery sharing. He added that New Zealand was ""well past the military issues"" of
the past. A/S Fort hoped the additional access would prove useful to New Zealand; the amount of information and
management of the information can be a challenge. Wevers commented that intelligence and assessments may mean something
different to New Zealand than to other Five Eyes partners. Often there are significant differences with Australia, he
added, as New Zealand is a more Pacific country than Australia and the latter is not always attuned to Pacific
developments.
4. (C) A/S Fort spoke about the challenges for intelligence analysts posed by the rapid growth of commercially available
analytic services outside government and the sophistication of search engines such as Google and Yahoo. The information
needed by policymakers is increasingly available outside government, and the size of outside companies or groups is not
a factor. Smaller can be very nimble; the quality of the analysis is key and the intelligence community must
increasingly look to match outside services and provide additional value added to remain relevant, affirmed the A/S.
5. (C) Fort turned to issues involving cyberspace and the Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI), which
will begin with the Five Eyes and then move to NATO countries. Security is part of the issue, but the A/S also stressed
the relevance to finance and defense. Even small countries can benefit with a relatively small contribution towards
equipment and personnel. Regarding deterrence, he mentioned that there are analogues to nuclear deterrence but the
international community is only beginning to think about cyber threats in similar fashion. Wevers noted that the GNZ is
seized with the issue of cybersecurity, and f is working with the PM's Department to protect the public sector computer
system and analyze the range of risks.
6. (C) In discussing the Pacific and Chinese activities in the region, Wevers said that China has recognized that their
competition with Taiwan is not helpful, but their foreign affairs officials are not always aware of what others in the
Chinese government are doing in the region. Venezuela and Cuba are now coming into the Pacific, and Wevers likened their
interest to that of the Russians in the past. A/S Fort mentioned that the backtracking of democracy in the broader
Pacific region (Fiji, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia) was a Washington concern. The region is more fragile today than
10 years ago, he opined, and urged a coordinated approach by the stronger and healthier democracies. Wevers offered that
APEC remains an important regional mechanism and the East Asia Summit, which includes India, is another good venue for
raising issues. Wevers added that China is only now realizing the very significant law and order problem within China,
as people are making money illicitly without any sense of the rule of law. The metamphetamine problem in the region can
be traced to China, continued Wevers, and the precursor chemicals are coming into New Zealand and other countries in
large containers that are difficult to stop. Meeting with MFAT Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth
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7. (S/NF) DepSec Forsyth welcomed A/S Fort's visit, stating that the GNZ values its contacts with the Washington
intelligence community. The twice-weekly CIA-Commonwealth briefings are very useful, but the Five Eyes provides greater
depth. She added that intelligence reports go to the PM's office, who ""absorbs"" the paper. A/S Fort explained that the
State INR Bureau is relatively small, and therefore focuses on core issues. Currently, Washington policymakers are
focused on the longer term implications of the recent Russia/Georgia conflict and what is holds for Russia's future and
adherence to international norms. With North Korea, the Six Party Talks are the central issue, but also Kim Jong Il's
health and possible successor. Afghanistan's trend lines are worrisome, he added, particularly due to the link with the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan. Pakistan's transition to civilian leadership is being watched
closely in Washington, noted the A/S. He and Forsyth discussed Iranian nuclear pretensions and possible Israeli
reaction. A/S Fort offered that Israel is likely to strike if the government of Israel believes Iran has met their red
lines; an Israeli strike against Iran would be more complex than those launched against Iraq and Syria, he said. A/S
Fort added that the US-India nuclear deal was an historic diplomatic achievement for the Secretary. Responding to
Forsyth's question, Fort downplayed Venezuela as a threat to USG interests and characterized Chavez as more of an
annoyance with limited political influence within the region.
8. (S) Forsyth praised the US-New Zealand bilateral relationship, noting that the highlight of the year had been the
Secretary's visit to New Zealand and onward travel to Samoa, which had provided a window into the challenges facing the
Pacific, particularly to the micro-states of the region. New Zealand views the situation in Fiji as ""acute,"" and
appreciates USG support for the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) position on Fiji. A/S Fort commented that GNZ sigint had been
critical to USG understanding of the 2006 coup. Forsyth offered that New Zealand sees an arc of instability in
Melanesia, as there is a great deal of money but little to no capacity to use it wisely. The Solomon Islands are under
control at the moment but there are still significant problems in terms of governance and corruption. The GNZ is
weighing the necessary structural changes needed to make a long-lasting improvement in the SI society so that RAMSI
security forces might depart. Vanuatu is coping for the moment, she added, and New Zealand is putting significant
assistance towards agricultural projects there.
9. (S/NF) Moving to North Korea, Forsyth asked if the stalled progress on the Six Party Talks was linked to a DPRK
assessment that the U.S. election aftermath might offer a better deal. A/S Fort replied in the negative, noting that
foreign policy continuity is the norm. Oscillation is part of the DPRK strategy, he added, and the current situation is
complicated by Kim Jong Il's health issues and the succession process. Kim Jong Il played off the former Soviet Union
and China to his benefit and may be trying to use the U.S. in the same way as the Soviets. China's role has been
constructive, continued Fort, largely because Beijing does not want to see a nuclear Korean peninsula and the
ramifications of a northeast Asian arms race. The A/S mentioned that North Korea faces a food crisis despite World Food
Program assistance. Forsyth said that the New Zealand high commissioner in Seoul would be going soon to North Korea for
a periodic visit.
10. (S/NF) The MFAT Deputy Secretary asked for A/S Fort's assessment of Afghanistan and Pakistan. New Zealand has troops
stationed in Bamiyan province and the GNZ is concerned over the malevolent influence from the tribal areas of Pakistan,
particularly since the international community has been trying to transform Afghanistan into a state since 2001. Fort
responded that Afghanistan will be an enduring challenge for generations requiring cultural changes. The U.S. is
determined to be more aggressive in addressing Taliban cross-border operations, and is weighing the political costs with
Pakistan. Forsyth and Fort discussed prospects for the Indian government to improve its relations with Islamabad to ease
pressure on the Pakistan army to fight insurgents in the FATA. Comment
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11. (C) GNZ interlocutors were pleased to have the opportunity to discuss a range of global issues of bilateral concern.
All meetings focused on GNZ support for the intelligence sharing partnership and, in particular, the singular role of
Prime Minister Clark in ensuring good cooperation. As of this writing, the New Zealand HC based in Seoul has already
returned from her trip to the DPRK; we will try to get a readout from MFAT. End Comment.
12. (U) A/S Fort has cleared this message. MCKEAN",24/10/2008