Thailand's Prime Minister & Military Unite

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the military are displaying a public show of unity, as the army prepares to install a hawkish commander after they defeated on May 19 a nine-week insurrection by "terrorist" Red Shirts.

Army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Anupong Paojinda is widely perceived as supporting Mr. Abhisit and they appear to agree that the general, when he retires on Oct. 1, can promote Deputy Army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Prayuth Chanocha to take over Thailand's U.S.-trained military.

Gen. Anupong is presented by colleagues and Thai analysts as a relatively dovish commander who was reluctant to use heavy firepower against the Red Shirts' barricades, because he wanted to retire without his countrymen's blood on his hands.

During clashes in April and May, the military used armored personnel carriers and assault rifles to clear the Reds' barricades from Bangkok's streets, resulting in a nine-week total of 90 people dead -- mostly civilians -- and 1,900 injured.

The Red Shirts are officially known as the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship.

Their insurrection failed in its bid to force an immediate dissolution of Parliament and a nationwide election that could have been won by allies of their thrice-elected former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr. Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 military coup, staged by Gen. Anupong and other top generals.

Mr. Thaksin is an international fugitive after being sentenced to two years imprisonment for conflict of interest and, in a separate corruption case, had $1.8 billion of his wealth seized by the government.

His Canadian lawyer, Robert Amsterdam, said in a July statement that Mr. Abhisit's government is "illegitimate" and, since April, has been ruling Thailand through a "new military junta" and "military dictatorship" under a state of emergency.

Thailand's response to Mr. Thaksin is expected to harden after Gen. Prayuth's likely promotion.

Gen. Prayuth, 56, is regarded as a hawk, especially against Mr. Thaksin, and would oppose any attempt by Mr. Thaksin's Red Shirt allies to form a new government.

"If Gen. Prayuth does get his promotion, it will be seen as reward for his service during the latest campaign against the Red Shirts, aside from the fact that the deputy army chief is actually in line to succeed Gen. Anupong," the English-language Bangkok Post reported on July 15.

The report named several other hard-line military officers who also may be rewarded in September, partly because of their performance against the Reds:

-- Dapong Ratanasuwan, a "hawkish" deputy chief-of-staff and a "strategic planner of the operation to contain the Red Shirts, could be promoted to the rank of general as chief-of-staff."

-- Gen. Wit Devahasdin na Ayutthaya may become deputy army commander.

-- Lt Gen Thanongsak Apirakyothin, commander of the Third Army Region, might rise to be an assistant commander.

-- Lt Gen Pichet Wisaijon, Fourth Army Region commander, could also be an assistant commander.

-- First Army Chief Kanit Sapitak, however, was not expected to be promoted, partially because some considered him too passive when the Red Shirts became aggressive. But he will be allowed to remain in his current position, according to the report.

Thailand's military officers and troops are also dangerously split -- reflecting political rivalries and feuds over promotions -- but little public information is available to indict how many military men are unreliable.

Those suspected of not being loyal to the top generals and to Mr. Abhisit are described as "watermelons," a colorful reference to wearing a green uniform on the outside, while internally favoring the Reds.

Mr. Abhisit, who took office in December 2008, needs to consider the support of Gen. Anupong and Gen. Prayuth, because the military has staged 18 coups and attempted coups since the 1930s whenever it was displeased.

The leaders of the 2006 military coup, however, granted themselves amnesty for their putsch, and Mr. Abhisit has not sought to overturn their immunity.

The military also appears pleased that Mr. Abhisit increased the defense budget, and generously allowed several controversial weapons procurement contracts.

"Since the army is the only tool the Abhisit government has against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Red Shirts, there is no question it has to keep the military happy," the English-language Bangkok Post reported earlier in July.

The politicized military also wields a lucrative and influential media arm, owning more than 200 radio frequencies, a TV station and a TV channel's concession.

Mr. Abhisit, meanwhile, has repeatedly denounced the Red Shirts' leaders as "terrorists."

The Reds brand him a "puppet" of the military.

The prime minister, however, says the military used armored personnel carriers and assault rifles in "self defense" against violent Reds who launched grenade and rifle attacks from behind their burning street barricades.

Mr. Abhisit says those unidentified armed fighters are still on the loose.

The military has not staged any victorious parades after crushing the Reds, perhaps mindful that the civilian government should now have the public spotlight.

During the crackdown against the Red Shirts in April and May, grim-faced uniformed military officers frequently appeared on TV to speak to the public, prompting some people to question why Mr. Abhisit was not more visible.

The prime minister was also criticized for sheltering inside a military base in Bangkok for several weeks during the Reds' insurrection -- eating and sleeping near Gen. Anupong's office -- apparently fearing assassination.

Today, the military's image is still a sensitive topic.

Official TV broadcasts, and other displays, now include flashbacks of armed soldiers trying to restore peace to Bangkok's Red-infested anarchistic streets, while valiantly ushering innocent civilians out of harm's way.

But when a new "Positive Network" group of people from advertising, public relations, media agencies and TV associations, produced a video titled "Apologize Thailand" in mid-July, problems immediately arose.

The video included graphic footage of clashes between the army and the Reds, along with other troubling aspects of Thai society, and was banned from being broadcast.

Its narrator asks in part: "Did we do anything wrong? Did we handle anything too harshly? Did we listen to only one side of the story? Did we perform our duties? Did we really think of people? Were we corrupt?"

The narrator advises: "If there was anyone to blame, it would be all of us. Apologize Thailand."

Accompanied by a moody piano playing the New Year's Eve song, "Auld Lang Syne," the "Apologize Thailand" video can be viewed on YouTube.com (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-NySQl7VJ0&feature=player_embedded).

After Thailand was internationally cited for censoring thousands of websites, plus other media, Mr. Abhisit said "Apologize Thailand" could be broadcast on TV, but television censors demanded it be "corrected" and toned-down before it could air.

Thailand's "military is first and foremost an armed bureaucracy, which does not fight wars," according to respected analyst and author Duncan McCargo.

"Instead, military officers have preferred to devote their energies to the more interesting and satisfying professions of business and politics. Their core businesses have been smuggling, logging, and profiting from the country's natural resources," wrote Mr. McCargo, a professor of Southeast Asian Politics at Leeds University, England.

"In politics, they have consistently claimed for themselves high political office -- many of Thailand's prime ministers have had a military background -- and a share in the running of the country."

One of the most glaring displays of Mr. Abhisit's hands-off approach to the army's questionable activities is his lack of interest in pursuing complaints that the military wasted $24 million buying empty plastic toy boxes, which they repeatedly insisted were bomb detectors.

Troops waved the empty boxes, each decorated with a toy antennae, at people and places in the south, and seized several innocent Muslims as possible insurgents while missing actual bombs which killed several troops.

Earlier this year, the hundreds of British-made GT-200s were exposed as a fraud, and belatedly denounced by the government, but the military continued to use them while searching for bombs in the south, where more than 4,100 people have died on all sides since 2004 in a worsening Muslim separatist insurgency.

"The bogus bomb detecting GT-200 device" is only one of several "procurement scandals which the army still cannot shake off," said a Bangkok Post editorial on July 23.

Buddhist majority Thailand is a major non-NATO U.S. ally, and a valued partner in Southeast Asia against international terrorism and other global threats.

"In the immediate aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein, Royal Thai forces contributed to medical assistance programs in Iraq," said U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, William J. Burns, on July 16 during his visit to Bangkok.

"In Afghanistan, Thai forces were responsible for the construction of a critical runway at Bagram Airbase, and provided medical services to allied troops." Mr. Burns said.

Pointing at Thailand's instability and lack of free speech, Mr. Burns asked in his speech:

"How can Thailand build confidence in its economy, or in its democratic development, with violence in the streets? How can it achieve reconciliation, and pursue political reform, if freedom of expression is restricted?"

Mr. Abhisit and the military are keeping one-fifth of the country under a "state of emergency," which includes a ban on political gatherings of more than five people, detention of suspects for 30 days without charge, censorship of media including Internet, and other harsh restrictions.

"Currently there are still all kinds of movements, such as secret meetings, that have made us more cautious," Mr. Abhisit said, justifying the emergency in 16 provinces, including Bangkok, though the decree has been lifted elsewhere in the country.

"Signs of unrest remain, and efforts are being made to sow divisions," Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary, Gen. Apichart Penkitti, said on July 20, echoing Mr. Abhisit.

The emergency was imposed in April to deal with the Red Shirts' insurrection.

Most of their leaders are now in jail, alongside about 800 other suspects, while many sympathizers remain in hiding.

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based journalist who has reported news from Asia since 1978. He is co-author of "Hello My Big Big Honey!", a non-fiction book of investigative journalism. His web page is
http://www.asia-correspondent.110mb.com

(Copyright 2010 Richard S Ehrlich)

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