Zogby vs. Silver : True Vote vs. Recorded Vote

As discussed in my open letter to Nate Silver, his methodology for ranking pollsters is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is an appropriate basis for measuring performance. Due to systemic election fraud, the recorded vote is not justified. The best measure is the True Vote, which is derived from total votes cast, rather than votes recorded. Using the Census value for total votes cast in the prior and current elections, we deduct four-year voter mortality and, combined with a best estimate turnout of living voters in the current election, we utilize National Exit Poll vote shares to calculate the True Vote.

Given the True Vote for the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, we can measure pollster performance in predicting the vote. Good pollsters such as John Zogby should not be penalized in the rankings because of election fraud. Conversely, biased pollsters such as Rasmussen should not have been rewarded in Silver’s rankings for predicting a fraudulent recorded vote.

Reputable election analysts who have crunched the numbers agree that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and Democratic Landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election.

The following tables illustrate pollster performance for the four elections against both the True Vote and the recorded vote. The rankings are straightforward; they are based on the deviation between the final poll (adjusted for undecided voters) and the True and recorded votes.

The projections allocated 75% of undecided votes to the Democrats, who were the challengers in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent who had high approval and a strong economic record, therefore a 50/50 split was assumed in the undecided vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating which declined to 25% in 2008. Obama was the de-facto challenger; McCain represented the incumbent.

Nate Silver ranks Zogby DEAD LAST. The historical record proves that Silver is DEAD WRONG.

This is what Zogby had to say just before Election Day 2004:

The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent.

And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush.

The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness.

There was a very heavy turnout of 22 million first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In his Election Day polling, Zogby had Kerry winning by 50-47% with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. This was a virtual match to the 52-47% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate data later released in the Edison Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report.

Let’s review Zogby’s performance in the tables below:

In 2000, Zogby ranked #1 of 10 national polls.
His final projection was within 0.5% of Gore’s recorded vote
It was 2.4% lower than the True Vote.
Gore did better than the recorded vote indicates.
There were 6 million uncounted votes

In 2004, Zogby ranked #14 (tied) of 18 polls.
His final projection deviated 1.2% from Kerry’s recorded 48.3% share.
It was 3.7% below Kerry’s 53.2% True Vote share.
There were 4 million uncounted votes
The election was stolen.

In 2006, Zogby ranked #7 of 11 Generic Polls.
His projected Democratic share was 3.4% higher than the pre-election GenericTrend Model and the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
The Democratic landslide was denied by fraud.
There were over 3 million uncounted votes.

In 2008, Zogby’s True Vote rank was # 4 of 15 polls.
His recorded rank was # 12.
Obama had a 52.9% recorded vote share and a 58% True Vote share.
The landslide was denied.

Of the 54 polls listed, Zogby’s True Vote rank is #26.
So why is he at the bottom of Silver’s list?

Richard Charnin, a.k.a. TruthIsAll is the author of the recently released book "Proving Election Fraud" which analyses statistical anomalies around the 2000,2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections.

For the latest version of this post see: richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

ENDS

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