Shinawatra on a Do-Or-Die Flight Plan to Thailand

BANGKOK, Thailand -- The international airport is open after a political blockade stranded 350,000 passengers, but Thailand is now grappling with a powerful fugitive who wants to fly his jet on a do- or-die arrival, to topple the government.

Armed with a PhD in Criminal Justice from Sam Houston State University in Texas, Thaksin Shinawatra is a former police officer, part-time telecommunications tycoon, and ex-prime minister, who was ousted in a bloodless 2006 coup.

He tenderly held hands with George W. Bush, during the then- president's visit to Bangkok in 2003.

Now, bouncing around the world in self-exile while dodging a two- year jail sentence for an illegal real estate deal, Mr. Thaksin appears to be hovering in the air, desperately plotting his return to power.

His flight path to Southeast Asia, however, is experiencing some turbulence.

"I already received reports that Japan has decided to ban Thaksin from entering the country," said Thailand's presumably delighted Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Thursday (February 5), tracking Mr. Thaksin like a rogue meteor threatening to hit the region.

England earlier forced Mr. Thaksin to fly away by canceling his visa, after he settled near London, because his Bangkok conviction suddenly made his presence in Britain untenable.

Merely the sound of Mr. Thaksin's disembodied voice creates jitters which ripple Thailand's nervous government, and joy among his many supporters.

"I will fight on no matter what happens. I am ready to be prime minister again, if people support me," Mr. Thaksin declared, claiming to be speaking by telephone from his private jet, in undisclosed airspace.

"Although I will live in exile for a long time, I will definitely not die abroad. Although I cannot return to the country [today], I will sneak back to die in the northeastern region."

That macabre vow referred to one of Thailand's poorest areas.

The ex-prime minister draws much of his support from impoverished farmers, and landless migrant workers, who struggle to survive in the arid northeast and seasonally search for menial jobs in Bangkok.

They favor his populist policies of cheap health care, easy loans and other tax-financed assistance, awarding him with three earlier election victories.

Bangkok's middle and upper classes, however, grew angry about their cash cascading down this Buddhist-majority society's strict hierarchy.

They preferred to use government money on projects pampering their lifestyle in the capital, and financing the elite's extravagance and protection.

They also railed against Mr. Thaksin's alleged massive corruption and cronyism, while human rights groups abhorred the extra-judicial killing in 2003 of more than 2,500 people during his "war on drugs."

Mr. Thaksin's airborne, 20-minute telephone call was broadcast to applauding supporters on Monday (February 2), and included an update on his hygiene, giving them hope that he could be a prime minister again.

"I will try to stay healthy. Yesterday, I had blood check and I am still strong. I am still healthy mentally."

Mr. Thaksin's biggest mental challenge is to get his hands on two billion US dollars in personal assets which Bangkok froze, but did not seize, after the coup.

His supporters meanwhile want to delete Constitutional clauses, orchestrated by the coup-installed junta, which ruled from September 2006 to December 2007.

The junta's 2007 Constitution bars Mr. Thaksin, and many of his colleagues, from politics for five years.

Thailand's new, virulently anti-Thaksin government is widely seen as vulnerable, because Prime Minister Abhisit is snubbing demands to face a nationwide election.

Mr. Abhisit gained power by manipulating Parliament Members who agreed to support his Democrat Party on December 15 in a haphazard, contradictory coalition, after the anti-Thaksin airport siege in November forced Mr. Thaksin's allied government to collapse in disarray.

Mr. Thaksin is now using a new opposition Puea Thai party to install his relatives into political slots, so his family can squeeze the government in his absence.

Mr. Thaksin's younger brother, Payap Shinawatra, was expected to lead the Puea Thai party in the northeast.

Mr. Thaksin's sister, Yaowapa Wongsawat, was said to be the party's representative in the north.

And Mr. Thaksin's younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was to be his extension in Bangkok and central Thailand.

Displaying their numbers, about 30,000 pro-Thaksin supporters, wearing red shirts, rallied on January 31 in Bangkok, demanding the government resign.

Much of Mr. Thaksin's activity, however, may be too little, too late.

"The big winner from the political chaos of the last three years has been the Thai military," wrote a respected analyst under the pseudonym Chang Noi, tracing right-wing moves to unseat Mr. Thaksin by street demonstrations early in 2006, followed by the coup, the airport blockade, and its aftermath.

"Possibly, the generals are now more powerful than at any time over the past 20 years," he wrote.

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based journalist who has reported news from Asia since 1978. He is co-author of "Hello My Big Big Honey!", a non-fiction book of investigative journalism, and his web page is http://www.geocities.com/asia_correspondent

© Scoop Media