Iraq Is Now The Democrats’ Problem, Not Dubya’s.
According to news reports from Washington, George W. Bush is now an isolated figure. Having seen his party lose control
of Congress, the President is being deserted by the same allies who supported his presidency and the war in Iraq. Men
such as Kenneth Adelman, Newt Gingroch and John McCain – all of them conservatives who despite supporting the invasion
are ducking for cover in an effort to save their own political skins. With the Neo-Cons in retreat and the Democrats on
the charge, Mr. Bush has been conciliatory in his remarks and even somewhat proactive in his dismissal of Donald
Rumsfeld. Yet does the Democrat victory in the recent mid term elections and the sight of friends ducking for cover
really make much difference the President at this stage of his term in office?
The case put forward here is very little at all. If anything, the emphatic nature of the Democrat win means that the
path may actually be smoother for Mr. Bush for the next 2 years than had the GOP held power. The reason behind this
argument is that victory may become a poisoned chalice for the Democratic Party. They hold sway on Capitol Hill but they
have become the party responsible for defining America’s exit strategy from Iraq as that was the platform on which they
were voted into office.
The Iraq war is shaping up as a re-run of the Vietnam conflict or at least the conclusion to the US involvement is. As I
have said before, the United States military is not geared to fight a guerilla war due to their reliance on technology
and firepower. The legacy of Vietnam was the ‘body-bag count’ and the America’s ensuing preoccupation with a high tech,
blitzkrieg battle-plan grew from that. Although the liberation of Kuwait in 1991 brought calls that it had vanquished
the ghosts of Vietnam, it was a war of this design. Even the invasion of Iraq was carried out along these lines but it
has since descended into a low level war that the US has sought to avoid three decades. Now Washington, under the
Democrats, is looking for an exit strategy. The first step will inevitably involve an ‘Iraqi-isation’ of the war. Iraq’s
armed forces will assume the bulk of the fighting against the insurgents while the US and other international forces
retreat to their fortifications. The American equipment and weaponry will be evident but the number of American troops
on the ground will reduce in the coming months. Gradually the divisions will be withdrawn and while some units and
advisors may remain in theatre, the American adventure in Iraq will be slowly drawn to a close. The irony of this
equation is that one aim on the part of Washington legislators will be to try and insert the term ‘honourable’ into this
equation.
Doesn’t Mr. Bush have a responsibility in this regard? Yes he does, but while his legacy is stained by Iraq, he does not
have another election to fight and he has already become something of a lame duck figure as has Tony Blair. Even if the
Republicans held Congress, Mr. Bush would have spent the next two years trying to convince domestic and world opinion
that the invasion was the correct thing to do and that the overthrown of Saddam was a much greater benefit to Iraq than
the civil war and break up of the country and little else.
The Democrats do not carry that baggage but instead, they come into office with the impression that they will somehow
get the US out of this nightmare. Hence they have the most to lose if they fail to achieve this goal. By stating that he
is open to new Iraq ideas, sacking Mr. Rumsfeld and appearing conciliatory, the President is skillfully shifting the
responsibility for ending the US involvement in Iraq to his opponents and even Hilary Clinton when she takes over the
White House in 2008. It is almost an admission of failure but without the words. Another ‘honourable withdrawal’ will
not be good for American confidence in its foreign and defence policies but after 2008 it will not be Mr. Bush’s
problem. The Republican loss at the polls may be the most fortunate thing that has happened for Mr. Bush while residing
in the White House and allowing the Democrats to find the solution, the most intelligent.
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David Miller is a New Zealand based writer from Christchurch