Undernews: US Mid-Terms Election Eve Observations

We have posted a box scorecard you can use on Tuesday evening. We will be updating it between now and tdhen. This scorecard shows the last five polls, the average of the last three (which we use for projecting the results) and boxes where you can list results of exit polls, early and late voting and the final result. It also has columns for comparing the projected returns and exit polls with final results. As we have learned in recent elections, such data can be important.

http://prorev.com/amline7.xls

SENATE - Democrats could win between 3 and 6 seats with the key races being Virginia and Missouri where the running three poll average is too close to call. Also a question mark: if Lieberman wins and controls the swing vote, will he help the GOP organize the Senate or take a cabinet post and let Connecticut's Republican governor do the dirty work for him.

Other closes races are Rhode Island where the last two polls have not been good. And the Democrats have a risky 3 point rolling lead in Maryland.

HOUSE - The Democrats could win between 28 and 37 new seats more than needed to take over the House. The difference is nine GOP seats still in doubt. One bad sign: the average Democratic lead in all the tight races has dropped from 4 points to 1.2 points over the last five polls.

GOVERNORS - Democrats will win between 9 and 8 new governorships.

WILD CARDS - A higher than expected turnout by groups such as the young and latinos could turn the tide towards the Democrats. So could discouragement on the part of conservatives. But then the biggest wild card of all: how many votes will the GOP steal this time?

MORNING LINE http://prorev.com/amline6.htm

THOSE DEMANDING voting machine reform often refer to the need for a paper trail. But as Thomas McBirney wrote to the Washington Post, "It is just as easy to build a machine that prints a non-trustworthy piece of paper as it is to build a non-trustworthy machine that does not." The best present solution appears to be this:

- Touch screen voting with a paper replica of the cast vote.

- Paper replica is inserted in an optical scan machine

- Paper ballot is deposited in a ballot box.

Both the touch screen and optical scan votes are counted and compared for anomalies - with the paper ballot as a backup.

Short of that, it's best to use the old paper ballots and hope the counters are honest.

The fact is, even if the Democrats win every race there is, the US will still be in Iraq (and if the big name Democrats have their way, also Iran) and Bush will be finishing up his 2nd term in the fall of 2008 (Nancy Pelosi pledged there would not be a move to impeach Bush). There will be some hearings for theater's sake, re: the no-bid contracts in Iraq, Katrina, etc., but the Democrats won't do anything substantive. The Democrats' strategy for the past 6 years has been to give Bush everything he wants -- hoping that if things go well they'd be able to share in the glory, if not they'd blame him. On the big issues, the Democrats will continue to give Bush what he wants. The DLC twerps who run the Democratic party -- the Clintons, Gore, Lieberman, Biden, etc. -- largely share the Bushies' agenda.

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