Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – Oct. 1 2006

Direct Link To This Week's Weekend Update Edition:
http://molesworthandfeatherston.info/pdf/MandF1Oct06L2.pdf

Rolling average poll

Ignore the headline race, it's still a dead heat.

A couple of big new polls enter the data this week and the Nats spring to a big lead on the headline number. But it's not that simple when it comes to forming a government - the cards are all in the Maori Party’s hands.

Assuming party leaders who have them hold their seats the numbers are:

It’s a 121 seat House with one Progressive Party overhang. Extraordinarily the left - Labour-Greens-Progressives have 59 seats despite National’s surge to an almost 5 point lead. On the other side National, United Future and Act only muster 58.

That leaves the Maori Party with the balance of power or, looked at another way, United Future and the Maori Party sharing the balance of power in a Labour-led Government. (Wouldn't it be a scream if the Greens refused to allow United Future in on that basis ....)

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Direct Link To This Week's Weekend Update Edition:
http://molesworthandfeatherston.info/pdf/MandF1Oct06L2.pdf

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