When Exit Strategies Might Become Imminent
David G. Miller
Whether it is the new realities of an MMP environment or just the personalities involved, there is a definite sense of
nastiness surrounding New Zealand politics at present. While the ongoing saga involving the Exclusive Bretheren
continues to roll on, there have been allegations of affairs, corruption and now Winston Peters has entered the fray
over Don Brash’s latest ill-advised foray into race relations.
One of the issues which continues to simmer along is that of Mr. Brash’s position as National leader. The recent
allegations of an affair have added fresh impetus to rumours that there will be a change of leadership for National and
the odds that Mr. Brash will not be leading the party at the next election appear to have shortened. The speculation
surrounding Mr. Brash’s position as Leader of the Opposition is nothing new, however what is perhaps more intrigiung is
what may happen across the benches within Labour. Despite falling poll results and some serious blunders from within the
Government, Helen Clark’s job has not as yet been questioned, at least not publicly. Nevertheless, this could change as
the next election looms closer and should Labour’s hold on power become increasingly shaky.
No public figure welcomes the thought of having to find an exit strategy but should they need to do so, then the best
example on how to leave a stage on your own terms was Tony Blair’s recent validictory speech to the UK Labour Party.
During what he claims was his final conference address, Mr. Blair not only offered a reminder of his political
showmanship and his ability to hold an audience in his grasp but also his clear intention to screw things up for his
long annoited successor Gordon Brown. Unlike so many of his contemporaries, Mr. Blair is in the somewhat unique position
where he has not lost a general election. Instead, it is his own party delegates and members of the House of Commons who
seem hellbent on achieving that aim. However, like so many public figures, Mr. Blair has an eye cast towards how his
legacy own will read in the history books. His decision to offer almost unconditional support to George W. Bush has
without douby stained that legacy beyond repair and what benefits the Blair premiership brought to Britain have been
submerged within the storms of protest that have followed the invasion of Iraq.
Yet Mr. Blair believes that there is still time to rectify this and is hanging onto Number 10 for as long as possible
and therefore refusing to set a deadline for his departure other than the oft-repeated line of ‘next summer’. The
problems this creates for those who may succeed him is that a Gordon Brown or John Reid led Government will have a
distinct impression of ‘interim’ surrounding it. They may wish to wait until the timing of the next election to try and
estabish a rapport with the voters in the meantime but then the ‘interim’ shadow looms larger. If they decide to gain a
mandate from the public sooner rather than later and head to the polls early, the they may suffer an immediate voter
backlash towards Mr. Blair and its back into opposition.
Ironically, in New Zealand, such issues appear to be plaguing the opposition rather than the Government, which is into a
third term of office and holding a severely eroded marjority in Parliament. Mr. Brash, who appears to finding the
support of the voters despite his recent bad publicity is fighting to show that he has the support of those around him.
Meanwhile the opposite is the case for the Prime Minister who, publicly at least appears to be very much in control. Ms.
Clark has given every indication that she will seek a fourth term in office and certainly no one from her ranks is
stepping forward to suggest otherwise. But then when a leader does leave office, they often do suddenly because as Lord
Byron once wrote, “All farewells should be sudden”. Just ask Gordon Brown.
ENDS